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Can gas fall back to $3 a gallon this year?

Posted Jul 31 2008, 08:01 AM by Douglas McIntyre
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Through much of the spring and early summer, Wall Street experts and oil analysts said gasoline could break above the $5-a-gallon barrier as oil moved close to $150 a barrel and vacation travel increased. This has broken the back of the car industry and crippled airlines as well.

In some regions of the country premium gas prices did top $5, but now, for the first time in a long time, the move in prices is downward. Data from the AAA show the national price for a gallon of gas falling to $3.96 this week, down from $4.05 a week ago.

With crude still dropping, how far can gas fall and can it make it back to $3 this year? Because of changes in consumption patterns, gas prices could fall sharply and fast.

The link between $150 crude and $4 gas is one that the public associates with an absolute link between crude and petrol. The relationship is less direct than most consumers believe.

Because of falling demand and a strengthening dollar, crude has dropped below $124, and, barring political instability in one of the large producing nations like Nigeria or a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, oil should keep dropping.

Based on OPEC production and the flow out of other major producing nations, the supply of crude is fairly stable. Use of oil in large consuming nations including India and China should be dropping modestly. They have cut the level at which they subsidize gas and diesel, raising prices to consumers and businesses.

Airlines, tremendous consumers of fuel, are cutting capacity by as much as 15%, further denting demand.

The most significant point as which the link between the price of oil and the price of gas diverges is in the habits of the car driving public. Production of gas out of major refineries is likely to stay steady. A fast drop in crude prices should actually improve margins at major refiners as oil drops faster than what they charge retailers for gas at the pump. Americans have driven 40 billion miles less in the past seven months compared to the same period last year pushing down demand for gas by 2.4%.  More people are not driving at all or are turning to public transportation.

If oil drops 25% from its $150 peak, moving down to $112, gas would likely be pushed back toward $3. But, gas could move down to that level even with oil only slightly under $120, if it stays there for a prolonged time.

One barrel of crude oil makes 19.5 gallons of gasoline. But crude is used for a number of other products including petrochemicals. The prices of oil by-products including plastics, synthetic fibers, and detergents have spiked up sharply, cutting demand.

If consumption of jet fuel, petrochemicals, and heating oil drops because of high prices, the amount of crude available to refine for gas will increase. Couple that with the fewer numbers of miles driven by Americans and there is a compounding effect.

Conservation plus less demand for other uses of oil spells gas moving back to $3, even if oil only falls modestly from here.

Top Stock blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Related reading:

The market rally depends on crude oil

A scary thought: Gasoline at $7.50 a gallon

Korea's hunt for oil fuels price hikes

Comments

 

Republican Majroity= No Progress

Democratic Majority= No Progress

I think its time to purge congress of these do nothing fat cats.

Wishful thinking.  The ties between the Bush Administration and the period of Republican control of Congress with Big Oil has set the stage for using fear (terrorism is a good word here, though not in the context of current military conflict, but in the U.S. Government participation in terrorising its own people) to raise the price of oil.  A manipulation of the 'gamblers' (stock market players) does indeed affect the price of oil, where the futures market keeps predicting the possible calamitous event that will dry-up supply (why every time before a price 'surge' is there massive rhetoric about going to war with a new country, which could cripple middle eastern shipments?).

The last thing that will happen is for gas prices to go back down to where THEY SHOULD BE.  Big Oil is connected at the deepest levels with politicians and they will not give up their profits for you, nor will the Republicans ever stop saying that the Rich must get tax cuts, Lord knows that they should not have to give up their quail egg and baby turtle back breakfasts having to eat cheap filet mignon and (gasp) chicken eggs.  Everyone else should shoulder the massive burden so that the Rich can have that cash reserve to always be able to have their exotic breakfast.

Manipulation will continue, and we will keep recognizing where gas prices should be, but that won't stop rediculous answers as to why it must stay (and is staying) at $4 a gallon.  If it gets to be a big enough problem, armed conflict of the most SCARY kind will occur to drive the price back up.

It will probably take eight years and two terms as President for Obama to roll back even a portion of the machanisms created to drain the nation's wealth.  That is, the draining of the populace' wealth and taxes directly into a very small number of the ultra-wealthy.

The question shouldn't be, "will price go back below $3", it should be "why was gas so cheap for so long?".  For a decade or so now it should have been about $4.25, and we're still not there.

Just last week I saw in the news about a barge loaded with oil and a tanker loaded with oil/oil products crashed in the Mississippi River, the barge split into and dumped its load, but what was the outragious thing was the tanker with its load of oil/oil products, oil from our country, was headed to a forign country. No wonder why our priced are so high. We buy it from forign countries, process it, then sell it back to forign countries, instead of using it for our own country. It is way past time that the good old USA stops taking care of the rest of the world and start taking care of its own. Nobody from the other countries helps us when we have a natural disaster, and they sure didnt come over and fight our civil war for us, so why should we send our products to those countries, and our troops to fight their wars for them. It is just insane.

3$ is supposed to be considered cheap???? or LOW?

If congress would pass a law to make these money grubbing oil conglongernments pay heafty taxes to help our dsfecit when their quarterly profits are above an average of 20 mil. they wont be so gung ho on scoring profits of 400 mil a quarter.

Sorry, Beth it just doesn't work that way. The "record profits" are a record in dollar amount but not in profit margin. For example you probably make a "record salary" by those standards when compared with workers in the past. That doesn't mean you are making an extravagant amount. The reports that I have seen show the oil industry with an 8-10% profit margin. A very reasonable rate far below that of many industries. Check the profit margin of Starbucks when you get a chance.

If this country had gone to a better way of energy, this country wouldn't be facing the hardships, it's facing to day. No, instead this country depends on foreign oil and lets the oil companies get rich from the hard working American people. It's people like George Bush who did nothing about energy, the eight years he was in office. He did NOTHING bud fund this senseless war for no good reason, and it wasn't because of our freedom or about the world trade center. This country lets money get in the way of making this country a better place to live. Our government needs to be over hauled and get people in office who are for getting rid of oil, before it's too late. This country is sad and as long as we have idiots in office, it will NEVER get any better.

Legislation addressing oil speculation would have a minimal effect.  While I believe that it oil commidity traders should be held to similar regulations as other traders, and legislation could get this accomplished, such action would not solve our problems and send us back to 1990s bliss.

And, refineries have not cut back on production.  That is absurd.  The only reason refineries ever shut down is for necessary repairs, to switch seasonal grades,  or to expand capacity.  The power to change gas rests mostly with consumers, as the article mentions.  

Having siad that, it is true that Congress can adjust CAFE standards and significantly affect demand in the years to come.  Congress recently did exactly that, although the Republicans blocked any serious CAFE changes.  I'm all for letting the free market work, but the oil market is not a free market at all, and oil dependency is a matter of national security and has serious ramifications for the entire nation's economic well-being.  So, when the car companies are dragging their feet on CAFE standards, the government has to step in as a matter of national security.  It hasn't happened with free market forces.  Remember the seat-belt debate in the 70s?  Cafe standards are the "middle-term" solution that is most effective in lowering prices.  In the long term, we need various alternative energy sources.  Here, the government shoudl not pick particular techonomlgies but simply provide inncentives for any technology that meets efficiency and pollution standards, however stringent those need to be.  Again, the only short-term solution is to reduce our consumption of gas.  This is having an effect as the article notes.

This is an election year, and we can research which candidate supports significant changes in CAFE standards.

Wyo

I agree with Beth and the solution is not in drilling offshore. Washington is getting to much kickback from BIG OIL to do anything about the price of fuel. Bush is lining his pockets everyday. If anyone paid attention prices did not start rapidly rising until his second term, if they had he would have had to do something about it and it would have hurt his bank account. Also I believe there should be a fine (not a tax) placed on the oil companies for excessive profits. They are raping the public and getting away with it, and also they are the reason the country is in the economical struggle it is in. How many people have to lose their job because of businesses shutting down for not being able to keep up with the economy. The housing industry is in the mess it is in because of oil companies and their GREED. If people were not losing their jobs so fast they could pay their mortgage. As it is right now you can't afford to anything more than put gas in your car to go to a job, assuming you are one of the lucky ones that still have one. Congress could make the auto manufacturers make a more econimcal car without the price of gas having to go up the way it did. The oil companies pay them not to pass legislation on things like that so they can continue to fatten their pockets. Exxon reported another record profit this quarter and are still complaining that fuel is too cheap. If the oil companies had their way gas would be $10 a gallon like they pay reporters to speculate it will be. All of the reports I have read in papers and online reek of pay-off from oil companies to the reporter. Europe has been high since the seventies but they do not rely on fuel for transportation the way we do, they use electricity for much of their transportation (ie trains). Our infrastructure does not support the use of electricity the way Europe's does. Our infrastructure relies on gas and the oil companies know this, that is why they are crippling AMERICA to seek personal gain. But then that is the AMERICAN way. The oil companies are like a reverse Robin Hood, they steal from the poor and make the rich richer, almost like the old tax collectors of the 17th and 18 century.

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