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Can Merrill make it out alive?

Posted Jul 29 2008, 02:02 PM by Minyanville
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One of the would-be good guys on Wall Street has now taken a hit to his reputation and maybe dropped the last bomb that could sink the Street. Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain was initially greeted as a savior. He was supposed to have all the tools and magic (and maybe even some snake oil) to save the world’s largest brokerage firm.

The job is on-going but going to be more difficult in spite of or because of news released last night: Merrill Lynch will attempt to raise $8.5 billion in new capital.

In order to pull this off the company went back to Temasek (Singapore), which will buy $3.4 billion of the new offering, expected to be as much as 200 million common share. Management is going to purchase 750,000 shares, too (I feel better already). Moreover, the company also sold mortgage backed assets with a notional value of $30.6 billion for $6.7 billion and will finance 75% of the purchase (Heck, I should have picked up some of that paper).

Thain has been pretty adamant that the company didn’t need to raise money. He battled analysts during the last conference call and dismissed persistent rumors the company needed to raise money. This latest round of money rising is going to be very expensive, resulting in a write down of $5.7 billion and other adjustments made to compensate Temasek for earlier investments at higher prices.

Merrill Lynch shares were down after the news but struggled to be up slightly, and in some bizarre fashion last night’s news will be viewed by many as a positive. I have to say, the last time anyone with this kind of flimsy financial creditability and track record was able to find lenders was the last wave of sub-prime housing loans.

I do believe Merrill is going to make it out of this malaise but the deterioration of trust between banks and banks, banks and analysts and banks and investors will make full recoveries years later than they could have if the industry had been straight out of the gate.

Top Stocks blogging partner Todd Harrison is founder & CEO of Minyanville.com. This post was written by Minyanville Professor Charles Payne. For related analysis from Minyanville, see also:

Will Merrill Spur the Hurd?

Watch: Merrill Cuts Its Losses

Is Merrill Good or Bad?

Comments

 

The financial terrorist acts by the FED need to be punished. We the people can not stand by and watch terrorists distory the US. The people of the USA must stand up and fight the terrorists at the FED.

What kind of capitalism is this? private profits for the rich and social losses? The US has become a joke and I do not want to here we are a capitalist country since is has been proven we are not. The US is a falling empire thanks to neo-cons like Bush and his band of greedy sell out. These are the real terrorist to the US.

And what about the financial analyists from other banks who pushed the stock; who were the believers of ths spin from thain and his predecessor; are they stupid or of the same ilk

recyled rubbish from WSJ.  MER could have done a lot better by creating a subsidiary which would have taken over the 31B portfolio, capitalizedwith the assets and little financial capital, hired unemployed RE brokers to salvage the properties to state and local governments hungary for housing to sell to firemen and cops.  Stupidity leads to losses for fools like me who trusted Thain  (his comments on "Not to worry; it is all over," thinking that MER's trading desk would make a lot of money on oil fututers and bought the stock @ 48 and now want to sell it @ 28! Duh! Thain belongs in the Jail for his incriminating and criminal remarks.

merril cheated me on 200,000.00  worth of bonds. so i hope they go broke

I went to Merrill as an innocent first-time client. I was too trusting--I really got taken unil I stopped one day, and figured out what the broker to whom I was assigned was doing-----fleecing me by churning, and not telling me the truth.

Said goodby to them and started to buy on my own. Have made mistakes, but have also made out pretty well in the long run. Am retired and am happy with Vanguard Flagship Services and the wonderful way we are treated. Merrill should go down the tubes and take all their "bunch" with them. Won't shed a tear! My dad always told us kids that their some people you just don't trust, bankers and brokers were two of the five--won't mention the rest--am sure you know who they are!

SCARY. ANOTHER LONG TIME AMERICAN COMPANY SELLING ITSELF TO THE CHINESE (SINGAPORE IS IN CHINA). I'M REALLY AFRAID THAT AMERICAN COMAPNIIES ARE SELLING THEMSELVES OFF. PRETTY SOON AMERICAN COMPANY WILL ONLY MEAN HEADQUARTERS LOCATION, NOT STOCKHOLDERS AND OTHER AMERICAN BENEFICIAL OWNERS.

Hey, guys, you knocking capitalism and mistaking the system for just plain BAD management. Be careful what you wish for here!  Stan O'neil (ex- CEO) came from General Motors where he should have stayed!  Then we'd only have one good company wrencked is stead of two!  The debt load taken on by ALL brokers was and is insane and does endanger the whole system. Ever since brokers could become banks they have piled on the levelage.  Since they have all sumcomed to greed, the whole system may need bailing out before long.  Even the street darling Goldman Sacks  has $275 BILLION in debt, more than Merrill.  IF the system breaks down, the cause may lie with the Fed rules allowing 20 to 1 leverage, didn't we learn in 1929 that too much margin helped bring about that collapse!  By the way, Bears Sterns wasn't bailed out, it did fail, but the Fed should have gotten a payback clause (for supporting the debt) when the systems heals.  Has anyone asked how does $31 BILLOIN in morgages become worth only $6.7 BIllion...maybe because they NOT really mortgages by the time the street turns them into ABS CDO's!  Where's Elliott Spritzer now when we need him to investigate then rather questionable securties?  Suggestions: CHANGE the bank lending ratio over time  to 10 to 1.  Change Executive compensation to a ten year defferred payout in stock only so that we can get good long term decisions in stead of  these short term get rich schemes!

Funny, all anyone ever talks about in terms of the health of these investment banks is the pure fundamentals.  Cash flow, liquidity, assets.

They are service business....       What about reputation.  Am I the only one who won't be trading with these guys anytime soon.  

What do they bring to the table that I can't get somewhere else.  These NY based brokerages are not the only game in town and there business can be offshored like any other.  hmmmm

I find your sarcasm offensive and the article void of usefulness.  As you the prevailing comments that "..hope they go under"", you have to be a complete idiot to hope for that to happen.

JLA

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