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The airlines need your help!

Posted Jul 10 2008, 07:17 PM by Matt Koppenheffer
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I typically skip over the periodic emails that I get from various airlines for being part of their frequent flier programs, but the subject line of the email from Delta yesterday -- "An Open Letter to All Airline Customers" -- caught my eye. And it's a good thing I read it, because the letter brought it to my attention that there's an evil group of speculators out there that are driving up oil prices and making all of our lives miserable (please be sure to note my sarcasm).

The letter ended with the plea "We need your help. Get more information and contact Congress by visiting www.StopOilSpeculationNow.com." Interested to find out if the airlines actually have found conclusive evidence that speculators are responsible for pushing up oil prices I followed the link. Unfortunately, instead of evidence I got "While everyone is aware that supply and demand constraints contribute to price increases, there’s another force at work that, like gravity, is invisible yet powerful. This force is rampant speculation."

I couldn't help but conjure up the image of a bunch of Al Capone-like thugs sitting in a back room somewhere admiring their pile of oil futures contracts, smoking thick cigars, and having a hearty laugh at our expense.

Now I should admit that I do agree with the airlines -- to a degree. Oil major BP offers some great oil and gas market statistics, and though their numbers tell me that current growth in consumption is outpacing production, it does not strike me as the kind of gap that would lead to the 100% spike in oil prices that we've seen over the past year. In other words, I don't think that it's just supply and demand that's driving oil prices.

The problem with blaming speculators is that nobody has the kind of data that we would need to conclusively determine what exactly is going on in the oil market. And we also shouldn't overlook the semantics issue -- are the people that are buying crude futures evil speculators or savvy investors? And can we really tell people that they can no longer buy certain commodities or commodity contracts to try and profit from future price increases? Last time I checked, Vlad Putin was not one of the candidates running for President.

For me, the fact that I've heard "it's different this time" in reference to oil prices more times than I can count on an abacus is enough to conclude that we've got some serious froth on this puppy. As with all bubbles though, the timing and cause of the eventual pop will continue to confound those in the bubble camp -- until it finally happens. And at that point, we'll all end up looking back and uttering a collective "duh" and wonder why everyone didn't see it as a bubble.

Could I be wrong? Sure, and there are plenty of other voices out there debating this very topic. On The Motley Fool's CAPS service oil and energy prices are a hot topic of discussion among the CAPS blog writers. For example, blogger saunafool has taken a look at legendary oil man T. Boone Pickens' plan for the future of energy. Meanwhile, Gemini846 shared some thoughts on the recent correction in the coal market. And calrose23 chimed in with his expectation that oil prices aren't going to come down and we'll need to find new sources of energy.

Have some thoughts of your own on the topic? Head over to CAPS and join the 100,000-plus investors that are already a part of the community rating stocks and blogging about the market.

Matt Koppenheffer is a Top Stocks blogging partner.

Comments

 

i love how its all the oil companies fault. They closed refineries and won build more. They aren't drilling enough in the land they have. They are making too much money.. blah blah blah. People don't be stupid this is a global problem and most of the countries with control OPEC are outside of the control of ExxonMobil, Cheveron or any other American Oil company. Stop with the ridiculous conspiracies. We tied our American companies hands be restricting drilling and nor allowing new refineries. They have been expanding refineries for years building onto existing plants because they cant build new ones. Grow up people. I dont like the oil companies livin high on the hog while im sturggling, but cutting them down wont help me any.

Yes it is absolutely true: Speculators are causing the price of OIL to increase to obscene levels! The problem is all of these speculators are members of an insideous organization called OPEC! Shouldn't that be obvious by now? Why have we waited 30 yrs. in this country to allow this situation to jump up and bite us in the A_ _? Did we not learn anything from the gas lines and oil embargo of the 70"s I like the cartoon where Pres. Bush is telling the Saudi RoyaL HEAD HONCHO: lOOK WE CAN NOT AFFORD YOUR 2 MAIN EXPORTS:  OIL AND TERRORISM!  IT IS TIME FOR AMERICA TO WAKE UP.

Yes, OPEC is an insideous organization, but OPEC is obviously *not* responsible for the existing high oil prices.  OPEC manipulates pricing by manipulating supply, and OPEC has been steadily and significantly *increasing* supply (especially Saudi Arabia) during the past two years, so the price runup cannot possibly be their fault.

Also, stopping speculators would be easy.  Just introduce a regulation that absolutely requires both parties to each contract to buy or sell the underlying actual commodity (oil).  If you want to go long on oil, then that's fine, but it should mean that you have to take actual delivery of the oil -- no getting out of it by taking an opposite position.  If you don't honor the contract in this fashion, then you are fined substantially and have to contend with restrictions on your account.  That would do it.  

A president signs or vetoes. It's the dag blam congress which stymies any attempt to tap into our HUGE coal/shale/and yes...oil reserves. Oh, lets not forget that the French are light years ahead of us concerning nuclear power. SO...when you go to the voting booth, just look for the (I) for incumbent and vote the other way. Send congress a message that their elected post was always intended to be a public service (tempoary) job. Not a cradle-to-grave career. I say two terms max, then get fresh blood in there.  If for no other reason than for these idiots to have to re-enter the private sector and live by the moronic laws they enact which we common folk have to live by. If a company performed like our government where NOTHING of substance has been passed into law for many years...heads would roll.

why when the sen and congress had the oil exec before them ask the hard questions?

would you build refineries if you were allowed to?

why aren't you drilling for more oil in the us?

how fast could you begin drilling for offshore oil if allowed to?

instead they tried to make the execs look small by asking about their salaries.

we need to drill for oil and we need to develop alternative energy.why

can't we do both instead of one or the other?if we can go to the moon and beyond how long do you think it would take to drill and build refineries in the meantime?

we didn't do anything since the 70's and now we are bs'ing again.i love a clean earth but i also realize that smart people can multi task.america is full of smart people so why are we acting like fools?i guess because it's more fun to argue than agree and do something.

regards ......fed up with both sides.  

One thing being overlooked in our problem with oil prices seems to be finding the person cutting off your windpipe, and then twisting a sharp knife in their backs.

We must do everything in our power to destroy the forces who do us harm, by any and all tools at our disposal. Demand our government to stop doing trade for anything produced, manufactured, or pieced together with camel hair for sale to Americans in trade for OIL. Then DEMAND our government enforce by lethal means, if you wish to remain an American Company,Corporation, business, large or small, and expect taxpayer support, to stop selling our technical knowledge or anything down to the size of a toothpick with any country wishing not to trade OIL with us at a reasonable cost. Note,..I'm being way to nice to those of you who need to profit from selling foreign governments our(American) spy satellite and space and missile technology! Since most every American has bought and paid for that technology through our exclusive right to pay taxes so you can sell our top notch secrets to people who haven't paid us back a dime for these gifts! Let the World know American products have, just increased in price, just beyond the means, by which they can afford them so they can start feeling the same oxygen starvation that we are here at home! And for those large American Corporations who wish to have one foot inside America, and the other foot outside the borders of America, that they have 24 hours to decide which foot they like best, and then incorporate a large, rather severe tax, to maybe, pay to help feed the starving children around the world, and not just in Africa! This tax would be for those who decided they liked the foot outside America,because we would have already, seized all of their asetts prior to announcing the 24 hour plan! Then we could get rid of all of those expensive legitimate American tracking programs, because by then when you looked to your left or right you would know who would really want to be here, as a taxpaying American Citizen!

I am quite happy that fuel prices have risen. The reason that alternative energy never took off was because oil was so cheap for so long it would kill any alternative project from developing. Now alternative energy is cost competative with oil. I saw the other night on the news about bio-fuel that can be made from algae that will produce some 1,000 times per acre the amount of bio-fuel that can be made from corn.

There does need to be some kind of tax to keep fuel at a high enough price to support alternative energy for the future.

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