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The airlines need your help!

Posted Jul 10 2008, 07:17 PM by Matt Koppenheffer
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I typically skip over the periodic emails that I get from various airlines for being part of their frequent flier programs, but the subject line of the email from Delta yesterday -- "An Open Letter to All Airline Customers" -- caught my eye. And it's a good thing I read it, because the letter brought it to my attention that there's an evil group of speculators out there that are driving up oil prices and making all of our lives miserable (please be sure to note my sarcasm).

The letter ended with the plea "We need your help. Get more information and contact Congress by visiting www.StopOilSpeculationNow.com." Interested to find out if the airlines actually have found conclusive evidence that speculators are responsible for pushing up oil prices I followed the link. Unfortunately, instead of evidence I got "While everyone is aware that supply and demand constraints contribute to price increases, there’s another force at work that, like gravity, is invisible yet powerful. This force is rampant speculation."

I couldn't help but conjure up the image of a bunch of Al Capone-like thugs sitting in a back room somewhere admiring their pile of oil futures contracts, smoking thick cigars, and having a hearty laugh at our expense.

Now I should admit that I do agree with the airlines -- to a degree. Oil major BP offers some great oil and gas market statistics, and though their numbers tell me that current growth in consumption is outpacing production, it does not strike me as the kind of gap that would lead to the 100% spike in oil prices that we've seen over the past year. In other words, I don't think that it's just supply and demand that's driving oil prices.

The problem with blaming speculators is that nobody has the kind of data that we would need to conclusively determine what exactly is going on in the oil market. And we also shouldn't overlook the semantics issue -- are the people that are buying crude futures evil speculators or savvy investors? And can we really tell people that they can no longer buy certain commodities or commodity contracts to try and profit from future price increases? Last time I checked, Vlad Putin was not one of the candidates running for President.

For me, the fact that I've heard "it's different this time" in reference to oil prices more times than I can count on an abacus is enough to conclude that we've got some serious froth on this puppy. As with all bubbles though, the timing and cause of the eventual pop will continue to confound those in the bubble camp -- until it finally happens. And at that point, we'll all end up looking back and uttering a collective "duh" and wonder why everyone didn't see it as a bubble.

Could I be wrong? Sure, and there are plenty of other voices out there debating this very topic. On The Motley Fool's CAPS service oil and energy prices are a hot topic of discussion among the CAPS blog writers. For example, blogger saunafool has taken a look at legendary oil man T. Boone Pickens' plan for the future of energy. Meanwhile, Gemini846 shared some thoughts on the recent correction in the coal market. And calrose23 chimed in with his expectation that oil prices aren't going to come down and we'll need to find new sources of energy.

Have some thoughts of your own on the topic? Head over to CAPS and join the 100,000-plus investors that are already a part of the community rating stocks and blogging about the market.

Matt Koppenheffer is a Top Stocks blogging partner.

Comments

 

There are solutions to fight high jet-fuel costs. If airlines would produce bio-fuels as a clean energy source in the airline industry. It will reduce fuel costs and bring air fares down.

We can't take it anymore with the high fuel costs and we need Congress to Act immediately. The oil companies are making too much in profits. $140 barrel oil is killing the cheap airfares. We can't stand for the additional fees including $15 baggage checks, seating charges, and food and beverages on major air carriers, such as American Airlines, United Airlines, and U.S. Airways. The airlines were used to providing food to passengers for free.

We want to support this message and look to improve this problem with the airline industry.

Maybe yes, maybe no.  But there is no doubt the airlines have mismanaged themselves to the brink of bankruptcy repeatedly over the past 20 years or more.

The issue is not speculation per se, but the way commodity trading works. It is highly leveraged and so small investments are required to control large contracts. The margin requirements on stocks is 50% of the cost of the stock. In commodity trading, the margin requirement can be as low as 6% of the value of the contract.

Simply changing the margin requirements to 50% or even 100%, especially for oil, would have the effect of dampening the market without legislating speculation.

We know that supply and demand are not driving the daily changes in the price of oil. Changes based on supply and demand takes months or years to develop. The rest is trading.

Another reason for the price is the fact that the oil companies have been working towards this for the last forty years. They learned during the first oil crisis how to increase profits. To that end, during the 80's, they started closing small refineries. Nobody noticed then. Now the oil companies are complaining, "We would build more refineries if they'd let us." while raking in the profits caused by a lack of refining capacity. To rectify the situation would cost them money to build refineries and building new refineries would release the refining bottleneck they use to raise prices. That's why they complain, knowing that, if they had the chance to build, they still wouldn't.

The problem with the airlines is rampant stupidity, not oil prices. As any other business out there will tell you, you must compute the cost of doing business, add a profit margin and compute the selling price. Granted if your price is vastly different than those of your competitors, you must eliminate waste to be competitive. All the airlines have to buy fuel, it is a cost of doing business, and it must be passed onto the customer.  The dirty little truth is airlines do not buy fuel, the customer does. If there was an airline out there somewhere who didn’t have to buy fuel them that one would have an unfair advantage, but all airliners burn fuel. The price of air travel needs to rise to cover the cost of the business and enough to allow the airline a little profit. We don’t need governmental help, look at what they did to the price of a 3 cent stamp.

dear spurgeon

those closings were EPA mandated, and no new construction is also EPA mandated. they have been warning of the bottleneck for years ahead. also we need to keep in mind that less than half of the oil purchased goes into our gas tank

What is truly sad is everyone points fingers as to whose fault this mess is yet NO ONE does anything. This may be an election year but I do not have the faith in either of the candidates to change anything...but so what...  the winner will be dealing with basically the same Washington leaders who also name call and point fingers. If this is a democracy and the majority of the members of the democracy want drilling for oil and new refineries why is it not happening?  Is ANYONE listening to the average tax paying American citizen?

The leaders of the “major” airlines simply have had no idea how to ever make money in a deregulated environment. Finger pointing is the last defense of the incompetent. We can only expect things to worsen for all of us dependent upon air carriers. read more at www.thephoenixprinciple.com

Since  Fusion reactors are years away and geo-electromagnetic generators are still just a theory, diversified current energy sources are necessary.  Greed or success in financial investments is a right in the persuit of happiness, or a dog eat dog world. Everything competes in one-way or another, timber vs coal vs oil vs hydro-electric  vs natural gas vs bio-fuel vs nuclear vs solar vs wind.  No Naturalist - Enviromentalist or mother would be happy with any energy source, but everybody wants energy and in most places is a neccessity for human life.

Most fortunes are made by supplying products that are thrown away and replaced, newer is always better so most think. To control waste, taxation is most effective because all costs are passed on to the consumer which composes the mass. The mass imposes change in economics unless diverted by politics in special interest groups and social change.  If the public or mass demands it somebody is going to supply it for profit.  BLAME YOURSELF and then those around you.

What I don't understand, is how come oil isn't sold like all other products? The company drills, refines, then sends to stations to sell? Where did all this commodities trading, speculation, etc come from? Why can't it just be simple? The company sends out the oil at a fair price that covers their cost of doing business. Quick and to the point.

Where in the hell did all the 10,000 other layers of oil buying/selling come from? And why did we let that happen?

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