The airlines need your help!
Posted
Jul 10 2008, 07:17 PM
by
Matt Koppenheffer
Rating:
I typically skip over the periodic emails that I get from various airlines for being part of their frequent flier programs, but the subject line of the email from Delta yesterday -- "An Open Letter to All Airline Customers" -- caught my eye. And it's a good thing I read it, because the letter brought it to my attention that there's an evil group of speculators out there that are driving up oil prices and making all of our lives miserable (please be sure to note my sarcasm).
The letter ended with the plea "We need your help. Get more information and contact Congress by visiting www.StopOilSpeculationNow.com." Interested to find out if the airlines actually have found conclusive evidence that speculators are responsible for pushing up oil prices I followed the link. Unfortunately, instead of evidence I got "While everyone is aware that supply and demand constraints contribute to price increases, there’s another force at work that, like gravity, is invisible yet powerful. This force is rampant speculation."
I couldn't help but conjure up the image of a bunch of Al Capone-like thugs sitting in a back room somewhere admiring their pile of oil futures contracts, smoking thick cigars, and having a hearty laugh at our expense.
Now I should admit that I do agree with the airlines -- to a degree. Oil major BP offers some great oil and gas market statistics, and though their numbers tell me that current growth in consumption is outpacing production, it does not strike me as the kind of gap that would lead to the 100% spike in oil prices that we've seen over the past year. In other words, I don't think that it's just supply and demand that's driving oil prices.
The problem with blaming speculators is that nobody has the kind of data that we would need to conclusively determine what exactly is going on in the oil market. And we also shouldn't overlook the semantics issue -- are the people that are buying crude futures evil speculators or savvy investors? And can we really tell people that they can no longer buy certain commodities or commodity contracts to try and profit from future price increases? Last time I checked, Vlad Putin was not one of the candidates running for President.
For me, the fact that I've heard "it's different this time" in reference to oil prices more times than I can count on an abacus is enough to conclude that we've got some serious froth on this puppy. As with all bubbles though, the timing and cause of the eventual pop will continue to confound those in the bubble camp -- until it finally happens. And at that point, we'll all end up looking back and uttering a collective "duh" and wonder why everyone didn't see it as a bubble.
Could I be wrong? Sure, and there are plenty of other voices out there debating this very topic. On The Motley Fool's CAPS service oil and energy prices are a hot topic of discussion among the CAPS blog writers. For example, blogger saunafool has taken a look at legendary oil man T. Boone Pickens' plan for the future of energy. Meanwhile, Gemini846 shared some thoughts on the recent correction in the coal market. And calrose23 chimed in with his expectation that oil prices aren't going to come down and we'll need to find new sources of energy.
Have some thoughts of your own on the topic? Head over to CAPS and join the 100,000-plus investors that are already a part of the community rating stocks and blogging about the market.
Matt Koppenheffer is a Top Stocks blogging partner.