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New investment frontier: Lebanon?

Posted Jun 12 2008, 05:04 AM by Jon Markman
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As we watch the brokerage industry trip and crash this year over its mistakes in the mortgage business, it’s nice to know that it still has a sense of humor. How else to explain the decision by industry heavyweight Invesco to launch an exchange-traded fund focused on the countries in North Africa and the Middle East -- and name it the Frontier Countries Portfolio?

I really don’t consider Kuwait, the United Emirates, Lebanon, Morocco and Egypt to be the frontier of anything except, possibly, some marketing guy’s imagination. Do they really have cowboys and cactus in Beirut these days?

After a little digging, I did discover that “frontier countries” really is a new industry euphemism for a bunch of little countries with investable public stock markets but thin regulatory, reporting and transparency standards. I suppose you could make a lot of money  in countries like these, but you could also lose everything faster than you could say, “Bilk me.” Wasn't Morocco the place where the police capitan in "Casablanca" was shocked to learn of gambling at Rick's Cafe?

The countries that fall under this new MSCI Barra rubric are Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Romania, Slovenia, Ukraine, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria, Tunisia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates., Lebanon, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. If you decide to go there, rest assured you will be virtually alone. U.S. investors reportedly have less than one tenth of one percent of their overseas funds in these markets.

To its credit, Invesco’s new PowerShares MENA Frontier Countries Portfolio will skip most of those countries and focus solely on Egypt, Morocco, Oman, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE.

And who are the stewards of your money in these countries, should you decide to go there? Surely they must be area experts deeply steeped in the traditions of Moroccan and Jordanian companies, right? Well, no. They’re not. According to a prospectus filed at the Securites & Exchange Commission, to describe this new fund,  the fund will be run out of Wheaton, Illinois, by a guy named Johyn W. Southard Jr. who has spent most of the past 15 years stateside as an analyst at companies like Charles Schwab and First Trust Portfolios.

Surely he must have help from some area experts rhough, right? Um, still no. The plan calls for him to be assisted by a Peter Hubbard,  who was an analyst at an Illinois hedge fund since 2003 after graduating from a local college; Jason Stoneberg, another recent local college grad; and a few other characters. Granted, they are supposed to mimic a North African and Middle East Index set up by MSCI Barra, but somehow it would be nice if one of them at least had a trip to Disneyland Cairo on their resume. For a full list of other wacky new-age ETFs at PowerShares these days, click here.

Comments

 

Hey, Why don't you just keep your shrinking USD home, you could always have a go at NASDAQ once again with its perfectly  regulated market, transparency and shareholder confidence,  unimpeachable analysts, and your banking system with its impeccabple credentials and laudable track record.

Hopefully your money will not get zapped this time investing in blue chip companies like MCI, Worldcom,  Enron, and a raft of others.

Surly you need to read more about international investing and have an open mind toward global markets. You should know better by now, with dollar exchange rates falling behind all major currencies isn’t that a sign or an indicator that  to start diversifying your portfolio? Just a though..

Before you start pointing fingers to others, analyze your own problems first. Let investors' guts do the magic.

I think your story would have solely targetted the firm other than the countries you mentioned, you sound like another idiot who dont have any understanding on global issues.

Hmm. Sounds like Jim Rogers needs to take another tour.

Joe

I cannot believe that someone like you would even be allowed to write on financial news, let alone give up such opinions. If you have followed the global trends and the efficiency of stock markets in countries like Kuwait, in which Merrill Lynch and Citicorp  have invested millions since the credit crunch, maybe you wouldn't come out sounding like a complete ignorant moron who's taking another ride devaluing the Middle East.

Jon, you seemed to have upset arab investors by expressing your well founded concerns re: regulatory oversight & transparency. its not that crookery & scams don't occur in western markets ( enron, worldcom - need i say more ) but in addition to foreign  investors not being able to reasonably gauge the risks in arab markets- there is the added factor of funding of terror since many of the stocks on arab exchanges have shareholders deeply involved in terror activities - for example the late master terrorist arafat & PLO leaders having stolen int'l aid money invested it in both in overseas & arab stock markets ( I won't name the stocks) and also bin ladden & entourage and even his family have fortunes tied up in stocks via third party  investment trusts operating out of various countries. if you recall the B.C.C.I. scandal invoving terror & drug money laundering & the collapse of the bank - then I repeat here the old roman maxim - " Let the buyer beware !"

Hi Jon,

I always enjoy your articles, but do have to disagree with you this time. Consider what the UAE has bought recently, P&O, Las Vegas Casinos,maybe the Chrysler Tower,large chunkc of Citibank etc. With the oil money pouring in, GCC economies are surging while the rest of the world suffers....a classic countercyclical ploy?

 I would love a chance to invest in Romania, Croatia & Bulgaria with EU membership here or approaching. I plunged into East Europe CEFs(BEE.ln, CEE) after a holiday to Hungary in 2000...they are up a few %100 since. If you have a look at the charts of the Spanish/Portugese etc markets from a few years before EU membership, until 2-3 years post membership, they look pretty good. Take a look at the Latvian stockmarket from 2000 onwards.

 Interesting comments on the management team!

As an American born investment banker with 16 years experience in the MENA region, I found your recent article to be completely misguided.  The emerging markets of the MENA and Levant region can provide investors with tremendous opportunities and significantly higher returns than those which could be achieved in mature markets.   The region as a whole is set to benefit from significant liquidity and investments in all areas, especially as the result of the increase in petrodollars, and growing more affluent population.

Is it irresponsible for two juniors to be managing such funds out of an office in Illinois?  Most probably.  Is it irresponsible to write about countries in which you clearly have no knowledge, most DEFINATELY.

Jon, kudos.  I see you're developing an international -- and higly excitable -- audience...!  But, you know, every one needs a place to play with a speculative portion of their portfolio, and funds like these may satisfy that craving while mitigating the overall risk a bit by dint of their portfolio structure.   Certainly no less risky than messing wiht thionkly traded penny stocks...  Adn you have to admit that emerging markets generlaly have been good investments over the last 5 years.

Jon, I am a bit disappointed in you Comments, since you are generally spot on in your macro and micro analysis; if you lived in these frontier countries, you would probably not bring up shades of the movie 'Casablanca'; it is like equating the US with Huckleberry Finn.  Morocco's economy, for instance, is expanding at a rapid clip; it's hot, as are the other countries in the ETF. Most of these have not been affected by the sub-prime debacle; banks are healthier than "developed" banks, mortgages are still evaluated on verified salaries,and while housing and real estate prices are rising faster than incomes, huge investments are pouring in from the Gulf States using recycled USD to fund major infrastructure, industrial and tourist complexes and  long-range projects. Morocco now has the second largest port in Africa, across from Gibraltar and strategically handling  the cross-roads of N/S and E/W maritime routes and trasnbording, which before took place in Europe. TangerMed is allowing the country and the region to become the major platform at the mouth of the Mediterranean basin, the Atlantic and African/European trade and shipping.

You may have a point about the not so well known guys who are at origina and the helm of Frontier Fund; as one of the commentors implied, however, experienced US/UK investment institutions have not necessarily shown that years on the Street have not produced any more wisdom than younger wipper snappers. Personally I think the region is one of the better ones to add to one's portfolio; its fresh; its young in economic development, it is off the radar screen but it's dynamic. People who left this region 1-2 generations ago to study, work and live in Canada, US, Europe are coming back with pockets full of money, knowledge and astuteness that makes 'Casablanca' look like a very old and dullrerun.

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