Will Lehman crash and burn? - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
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Will Lehman crash and burn?

Posted Jun 05 2008, 05:50 PM by Matt Koppenheffer
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Are we going to get an encore showing of "The Amazing Disappearing Investment Bank?" Now that Bear Stearns is no more, the banking bears and short sellers have turned their attention to fellow investment bank Lehman Brothers.

With the massive leverage ratios that the investment banks have propped themselves on, creditor confidence has become a prized asset -- maybe the prized asset. There was plenty that was going haywire over at Bear, but it ended up being a complete and rapid drying up of the firm's liquidity that finally pulled the rug out. Unfortunately, Bear's management didn't seem to grasp the potential of this happening and their response to liquidity questions was a flip "Liquidity? Oh don't worry, we're just fine."

As the saga continues to unfold we'll see how much Lehman learned from Bear, and whether it's enough for them to keep the liquidity flowing, but the firm certainly seems to be taking the pessimists on head first. Lehman raised new capital back in April, but did so with preferred shares that couldn't be shorted. More recently, as rumors swirled that the company would be raising more cash, it thumbed its nose at shorts and bought back shares instead. The financial media has also gotten wind of deleveraging at Lehman through whispers and leaked memos from the company.

But the short sellers are stubborn. Trying to pick apart the financial position of the firm is nearly impossible for an outsider, but chief critic David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital has made a pretty compelling case by highlighting some questionable areas of Lehman's last quarter and arguing that it should have seen much worse write-downs on its CDO holdings. Multiple bloggers, including Barry Ritholtz and Yves Smith, have also questioned whether Lehman is intentionally leaking information -- which should be drawing the ire of the SEC. And disclosure rules aside, they also argue, what does it say about how Lehman management is feeling if this cloak and dagger information exchange seems appropriate?

Don't go to The Motley Fool's CAPS community expecting a sunnier take either. The stock is rated a rock bottom one star there and many community members are looking for blood. Just today MarketBottom jumped in the scrum with an underperform rating on Lehman saying "The giant derivative laced scheme has now started to unwind and the fallout from this has only started. Desperation is now being added to previous bad judgment."

CAPS All-Star TMFWBuffettJr was of the same mind when he put his thumb down on Lehman back in February:

Warren Buffett warned that the problem with such a fantastic party like we had at Cinderella's mortgage ball over the last five years is that there are no clocks on the wall. He said the drinks taste a little better, the girls get a little prettier, and so you stay for just one more dance. But eventually midnight hits and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice. Lehman is caught holding a lot of pumpkins and mice, they're just trying to hide it a little while longer than everyone else.


My take is that the opacity of Lehman makes it extraordinarily tough to figure out whether this stock is a victim of irrational fear or a ticking time bomb. So I'm not shorting it and I'm not buying it -- instead, I'm keeping my distance and getting ready to duck and cover should it end up blowing.

 

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Comments

 

I am amazed that people have such disdain for those working on Wall Street.  These bankers have rare talent with numbers and are compensated well for it, similar to singers, actors, etc., just in a different field, and they worked exceptionally hard in school and now work horrendously long hours.

Bear Stearns was saved by the Fed to prevent a collapse of the entire economy, and over 60,000 Wall Streeters have lost their jobs, yet people harbor such bad feelings towards them; I just don't get it.

No one on Wall Street stepped on the backs of the working man; as a matter of fact, they are trying to help by saving pensions with good investments, and rescuing companies that are about to fail.  If they lay off 10,000 people from a faltering manufacturer, but save the other 30,000 employees, what is wrong with that?

Investment banking is a necessary cylinder in the engine of our economy, let us not be blinded by our envy.

Banks are nothing more than legalized extortion and have been buying off politicians for years. Why did President Bush try to change the Bankruptcy Laws the very first thing when he first entered office. He got is passed when he was re-elected. It doesn't take a brick wall to fall on you to figure that one out. Do we smell collusion or what? I keep waiting for the ballon to bust totally. I guess Hollywood will have to dust off some old scripts, bring it up to current times, make some Great Depression movies all over again!

Every dark cloud has a silver lining, with this banking and credit mess at least the junk mail credit card offers have slowed down a little bit and you dont need a basket to unload the mailbox.

We have met the enemy and it is ourselves.  All these people who work in the Real Estate/Financial/Banking industry who caused this mess because they were "reaching for a yield", the greedy speculators, the people who bought houses larger than they needed and for more than they could afford, the American consumer who wants first class service/goods at bargain basement prices but complains about American jobs going overseas, the American consumer who's insatiable appetite for buying things instead of saving for their retirement, and the reckless abandon with which we have lived our lives.  All these people are not some faceless entity. They are our Mothers and Fathers, brothers and sisters, and sons and daughters. Look in the mirror America. We have done it to ourselves with our Pollyanna attitude. We are the Grasshoppers instead of the Ants. No, even more appropriate, we are the Locusts. I love my country, but my Country is in for a huge re-adjustment. I hope we can pull together and survive it.  

Its going to get tougher for all of us. Knowing this should put us into action doing what we can. Staying out of debt, spending a little, saving a little and always being responsible for our own actions. Discerning between wants and needs has become fuzzy for the poor as well as the wealthy. The current problems will be solved, the only question is how hard, how long and how deep will it go. The other question is what will you do ? How about encourage good honest men to represent us in politics. How about making sure, as best you can, that you work with people with integrity. Quit taking information at face value and do your own research before you act financially. If we each do these things and more we will begin to expect it from others. Lets start now to improve our world by improving how we each live our lives. Lets press our current leaders to hold those who prey on the system to be accountable. Lets press them to uphold the laws already in effect and keep the fire to their back side and hold them accountable. It us - the people that always correct the problems. Lets get with it !

Obama is right 'change' is on the horizon.Unfortuantely, the change is nothing Obama ,or anyone else for that matter, will be able to correct.The self serving greed of such a  few has destroyed our wonderful country.We have been sold,by our government,our financial institutions and ourselves.This is the Roman Empire and as we learned through our history courses  decadence destroyed one of the greatest civiliations imaginable.We are on that course and if we continue there will be nothing for our children or their children. The loss of Stearns possible loss of Lehman and UBS is shocking and just the beginning.We need to look inside not to Foreign concerns. Once you sell, control is lost forever. As usual we are the quick fix nation ,point the finger, look for the bail out , we will reap what we sow and it certainly will be a differrent America than what we once knew and cherished.  

OK...Let's get one thing straight in the beginning - please don't lump community banks in with Wells, WaMu, Bank of America, Citi, Lehman, or any of those other organizations.  If the big boys would have followed the stringent guidelines that the FDIC and OCC force community banks to follow, we would not have a banking crisis.  Sure, some banks would have losses but nothing on the scale that we are now seeing from Lehman or Bear Stearns.

As to who created the housing crisis - look directly at Congress and the Clinton Administration, who were assisted by the Bush Administration.  The loosening of residential mortgage underwriting rules that was approved to increase home ownership in the U.S. is the reason we have a residential mortgage crisis in the first place.  It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that two clerks at Wal-mart cannot afford a $300,000 house but that was who was getting approved for some of these exotic mortgage products.  There was no rhyme or reason to it and as a banking professional, I am ashamed that some of my collegues actually made some of these loans.

As to the economy, this did not happen overnight.  The U.S. economy is like an oceanliner, it does not do anything quickly.  This correction has been years in the making and, certainly, the process has been sped along by the War in Iraq and the actions of the Federal Reserve.  Most of us "common" Americans are experiencing double-digit inflation, despite what the pundits in Washington tell us.  You know it and I know it, it is really too bad that our governmental leaders do not see it.  To say that inflation is increasing at a pace of less than 10% is an insult to the common citizen when I can tell you that my family's grocery bill has increased by 40% and gas costs have increased by over 25% in the last 8 months.

I hope that, by the time our leaders wake up and smell the coffee, it is not too late.

Next new outsourcing of jobs will be Wall Street and I don't know of anyone who deserves it more, send it to China, they are doing pretty great right now from receiving our manufacturing jobs, I think they need the stock market and investing jobs next and soon we should send over our political jobs then watch a turn around....ROFLMAO

russ reed couldn't have said it better.

Riches Here ? Riches Heaven ? I think I choose the 2nd

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