Amazon shares overvalued? Who cares?
Posted
May 22 2008, 01:39 PM
by
Kim Peterson
Rating:
Amazon is the supermodel who never ages.
The company's star is just as bright now as it was 10 years ago. Never mind that the stock price tumbled below $10 in 2001, or that the company doesn't always hit its numbers. The Wall Street Journal looks at a maddening problem for Amazon short-sellers. At 60-70x trailing earnings, the stock sure seems overvalued. But with this company, it doesn't really matter.
The problem, according to the WSJ, is that you can't pin a valuation on Amazon because there's so much emphasis on the company's future. Goldman Sachs thinks Amazon can grow revenue by 20% or more for the next 10 years. If that actually happened, revenue would hit an astonishing $120 billion by 2018. Then there's the Kindle, Amazon's book reader. Citi analyst Mark Mahaney thinks Kindle-related revenue will hit $741 million by 2010.
With those kinds of numbers being thrown about, the market can't help but fall in love with Amazon over and over. The stock has had a remarkable run over the last two years, which just fans the flames of high expectations. Amazon is trading today at $79.40.
Bottom line? Amazon is the market's American Idol. Any realisitic analysis of the company's valuation is meaningless because its future is just too bright.