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Amazon shares overvalued? Who cares?

Posted May 22 2008, 01:39 PM by Kim Peterson
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Amazon is the supermodel who never ages.

The company's star is just as bright now as it was 10 years ago. Never mind that the stock price tumbled below $10 in 2001, or that the company doesn't always hit its numbers. The Wall Street Journal looks at a maddening problem for Amazon short-sellers. At 60-70x trailing earnings, the stock sure seems overvalued. But with this company, it doesn't really matter.

The problem, according to the WSJ, is that you can't pin a valuation on Amazon because there's so much emphasis on the company's future. Goldman Sachs thinks Amazon can grow revenue by 20% or more for the next 10 years. If that actually happened, revenue would hit an astonishing $120 billion by 2018. Then there's the Kindle, Amazon's book reader. Citi analyst Mark Mahaney thinks Kindle-related revenue will hit $741 million by 2010.

With those kinds of numbers being thrown about, the market can't help but fall in love with Amazon over and over. The stock has had a remarkable run over the last two years, which just fans the flames of high expectations. Amazon is trading today at $79.40.

Bottom line? Amazon is the market's American Idol. Any realisitic analysis of the company's valuation is meaningless because its future is just too bright.

Comments

 

Amazon and eBay are some of the worst run companies and websites I have ever seen written.

As someone trained in mainframe programming, degree in accounting and business and a consultant, eBay recently "forced" me to offer Paypal so they could make more money from me and others who have less than 100 sales.  First, they did not do it for many sales prior and second, they claim it is safer for buyers and sellers.

Like Amazon, there is no safety increase.  Besides, their agreement states "feedback of 100."  Feedback means the information they get back from buyers and they also started a policy of no "negative or nutreal feedback" anymore.

If Mr. Bezos, the founder and CEO of Amazon, had any brains he would change several things on the website and on their lousy phone system, which I know the latter of the two has been suggested.  That shows me he thinks he is smarter than everyone else and is not willing to listen to others.

I told the person I spoke to, to tell him I could guarantee him an additional 5-10% increase in sales within one year, but since he smarter than everyone else why should I help.  He is like most CEOs.  They never want to listen.

actually, most great CEOs are great listeners...

Very interesting read... I just have one question... When did you make your first billion?

Since we're talking about a business that is near monopoly that rakes in money in spite of it's (great or not) CEO and is a Wall Street darling not because of investors but gamblers, this whole discussion is pretty much pointless, isn't it?

You say "flames of high expectations".. I would call that they are more like" Fumes of High Expectatations".

I think the Kindle is a gimmick for the sell side to keep the balloon aloft. Where is the moat of their biz model? Books? Did you hear even Sears has jumped into that and doing well too? Where is the barrier to entry? One price shipping? Only as long as UPS/Fedex hold the line on shipping charges? Wanna bet? Marketplace of independent sellers? Ask eBay. Now, with Microsoft and their cashback Live Search and other similar things from Yahoo & Google, Marketplace will be subsumed by search-led gateways to small and large merchants not Amazon.

Kindle? until Apple takes it all away like what it it did to all early entrant music players. Ah, yes there is their cloud computing schtick and Google will just sitback and watch. Even Salesforce.com is getting in that space.

This will stay up onlly as long as Bezos and Miller hold off cashing in. Checked the SEC filings lately?  

AMZN is way overvalued going into a consumer based recession.  This stock will get hammered back to the 55- 60 range.  SHORT next month!

Mark Mahaney is nothing more than an analyst cheerleader.  He inherited the Henry Blodget role of Rah Rah Rah!!.  He is in love with the companies he covers and pumps them up  at every opportunity.  Amazon may have many of the advantages and growth potential that is noted in the WSJ article.  However, it should be priced in the shares at 65 times EPS or so.  Plus, has anyone priced in sales downturn due to recession rather than foolishly assuming that this company is recession proof? Prudent investors know better than to place money on this stock at this time.

I sharted this JUST before GS put it on its conviction list but held on and am getting paid now.  I say $40 by October.

For the longest time, I cheered when the big guys took a tumble. I found some personal satisfaction in knowing that their numbers, like all others, are based on percentages. When enough people call their product crap and the prices start to fall, they have to answer for the poor performance.

However, lately, I stopped complaining about the rich getting richer and jumped into the game. Whether or not the product is good or bad, whether or not the company is poorly managed, and whether or not the CEO's of America are dumber than a bag of hammers ... they are making money. Why not make money off their coattails? I had to put personal servitude and moral disposition aside and outlined my personal goals. I personally don't own Amazon stock ... it's out of my price range for the number of shares I typically buy, but at some point I might. Owning shares will give me that voice into the company, granted it might be a small voice with little impact, but a voice in ownership is more than a voice with none. If the village idiots in Wall Street are running through the town yelling Amazon is number one, and I see an opportunity to make $1000 to $2000 along with them … then call me an idiot as well.

... and no, this is not the way I pick my stocks or analyze a company, the traditional ways still hold merit.

They should make the Kindle really cheap if they want people to get into it. $300+ for it? I could buy a lot of portable, beautiful book for that.

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