The market rally depends on crude oil
Posted
May 13 2008, 08:56 PM
by
Charley Blaine
Rating:
The chart of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is telling me the market could move higher and happily so -- if oil prices will cooperate. That is a big if.
Fact is, the index is giving no signs of totally falling apart. It's nicely above its 50-day moving average, and it's moving in parallel with the moving average. Something that gives an investor a warm feeling inside.
And it is forming a support level at about 1,383. That means buying will be triggered if the index hits that number. Again, that's a sign of stability. Moreover, it looks resilient. On May 1, the index crossed 1,400 for the first time since Jan. 14, and it has closed above 1,400 seven out of the last nine trading sessions.
And the rally might have legs. If you look at the chart for the year to date, it looks like a longer-term bullish trend line has formed from the bottom of 1,256.98 on March 17 through 1,324.25 (the low of April 15) and 1,386.34, the low on Monday.
But let us not get too giddy here because oil still must be dealt with.
The index peaked at 1,422.50 on May 2. That's near the 200-day moving average for the index, and it has not come close to moving past that level since. The resistance set in as investors reacted to crude oil surging well above $120 a barrel in New York. Crude nearly hit $127 today.
So, crude oil bears watching and not just because rising crude pushes gasoline prices higher.
I should note a possible counter-theory on why the index broke may also be that on May 3, Microsoft walked away from its $47.5 billion bid for Yahoo. Coincidence? Dunno. Maybe somebody has a thought? (Microsoft, by the way, is the publisher of MSN Money.)