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The market rally depends on crude oil

Posted May 13 2008, 08:56 PM by Charley Blaine
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The chart of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is telling me the market could move higher and happily so -- if oil prices will cooperate. That is a big if.

Fact is, the index is giving no signs of totally falling apart. It's nicely above its 50-day moving average, and it's moving in parallel with the moving average. Something that gives an investor a warm feeling inside.

And it is forming a support level at about 1,383. That means buying will be triggered if the index hits that number. Again, that's a sign of stability. Moreover, it looks resilient. On May 1, the index crossed 1,400 for the first time since Jan. 14, and it has closed above 1,400 seven out of the last nine trading sessions.

And the rally might have legs. If you look at the chart for the year to date, it looks like a longer-term bullish trend line has formed from the bottom of 1,256.98 on March 17 through 1,324.25 (the low of April 15) and 1,386.34, the low on Monday.

But let us not get too giddy here because oil still must be dealt with.

The index peaked at 1,422.50 on May 2. That's near the 200-day moving average for the index, and it has not come close to moving past that level since.  The resistance set in as investors reacted to crude oil surging well above $120 a barrel in New York. Crude nearly hit $127 today.

So, crude oil bears watching and not just because rising crude pushes gasoline prices higher.

I should note a possible counter-theory on why the index broke may also be that on May 3, Microsoft walked away from its $47.5 billion bid for Yahoo. Coincidence? Dunno. Maybe somebody has a thought? (Microsoft, by the way, is the publisher of MSN Money.)  

Comments

 

The Market is in deep trouble. The USD continues to fall  as Ben prints more worthless IOU USD. Inflation is the real reason why OIL is up so much. The more BEN bails out the banks and injects hundreds of billions of dollars into the system the more inflation and higher OIL and gas prices. We haven't see anything yet in terms of inflation since all the injected billions has not been factored as of yet. The depression will be tough but we will get through it.

The US markets are simply being manipulated by the PPT. The US is broke and a falling empire. We Americans like to brainwash ourselves but the fact is we are in a deep recession with no way out. The US will have a depression as more and more people lose their jobs. Tent cities much like the 1930's depression are popping up all over America. You won't see it on US propaganda news media but it is being reported all over the world. We American are being lied to by our leaders and media about the current deep recession.

Come on depression? We will have a deep recession which will last for 4-5 years but a depression ? Will will see more of those tent cities and yes our media isn't reporting it. 50 miles from where I live theres a tent city which seems to grow by the week and yet no mention of it from the local news media or paper. Many of my good friends have lost their jobs and homes and I have helped and will help them as much as I can. We Americans need to help each other in these bad times.

Who cares if the markets are up? It's means nothing to the average American who continues to lose their jobs and homes daily. In Nazi Germany the stock markets took off as their Germany Mark fell in value much like our USD. Like many here have said INFLATION  is killing Americans and the real economy. People have no idea how bad things wil get. Depression? no doubt.

"We Americans need to help each other in these bad times."

bob has a GREAT point. WE ALL NEED TO HELP EACH OTHER!!! We cannot sit aside with our blinders on and pretend that we don't notice our FELLOW AMERICANS eat dirt.

There are more of us 'average' Americans struggling in this time than there are those that are still driving Hummers around as if there wasn't a crisis brewing.

It is not right that most of us are tightening our belts past the point of tolerance while there are those that are directly contributing to the continuing slide.

I think you're misreading the charts...

1) Hasn't this "rally" occured from around middle of March to now? What did oil prices do then...they went from under 100 to over 125...so they were moving in the same direction...

2) True fundamental support is much lower than 1383. "Midcycle slow down" is being thrown around by traders. But tell me when, ever during a bull market rally there was a midcycle slowdown that lasted 6-7 months, without recovering above the 200 day moving average?

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Aside from that all the issues that made the market go down aren't resolved, and won't be resolved possibly until 2010 or maybe even after that.

it's about time the us did a concerted effort to remove oil as a weapon. ban plastic bottles. ban plastic toys. ban suv's. make public tranportation mandatory for those who can take advantage of it. install alternate heating sources in the northeast and northwest to eliminate oil as a fuel.heavily tax those who insist on using oil and it's products. we lived just fine before colonel drake. we can again.

You guys are saying the exact same thing I have been and believe me, I've been laughed at.  The media is so manipulated we only get a very small percentage of the truth.  Thankfully our eyes are open and we can see what's happening out there.  Ben and Co. have no clue as to the reality you and I face every day.  The market is a joke, as everything in our economy now depends on foreign oil and goods more than ever before and with our dollar dropping by the hour, we've never been in more trouble.  When this whole thing blows, the only ones left standing are those of us who have been pretty self-reliant all along.  We're the ones who will have to teach the rest of them how to get by on what you have, not get what you want before you've earned it.

It's time to talk.  We can only hope that our so called elected leadership finally come to their senses and do what we need them to do instead of playing these self righteous Washington games.  We are in a recession, yet they refuse to admit it.  I, for one, can not wait until that tuesday in November when we can finally start to turn this around.  We need to start talking to the rest of the world.. not threaten them.  Our economy can only benefit from leading and talking.  It's just ashame that the people we gave jobs to in Washington have nothing else on their minds but their own selfish powers and greeds.  This country will be remembered 100 years from now by the lack of leadership Washington as shown.  I feel for my kids and their kids.. and what they have to look forward to and the mess we are leaving for them.  Why NOT talk????

THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO FIND ALTERNATE SOURCES OF CRUDE OIL.  BY DOING THAT THEY CAN TELL IMPORTERS HOW MUCH THEY WANT TO PAY RATHER THAN HAVE THEM DICTATE THE PRICE. THE GOVERNMENT ALSO NEEDS TO WORRY ABOUT THINGS AT HOME RATHER THAN SEND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OVERSEES TO COUNTRIES THAT OFFER NO SUPPORT IN TOMES OF OUR NEEDS.  THE GOVERNMENT CAN FIND A SOLUTION TO FIX OUR PROBLEMS AT HOME, THING IS POLITICS AND GOOD FACE VALUE TO OTHER COUNTRIES GETS IN THE WAY.  IT LIKE I TELL MY FREINDS, WORRY ABOUT HOME THEN HELP OTHERS IF YOU CAN.

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