Is there a case for buying Citigroup? - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
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Is there a case for buying Citigroup?

Posted May 13 2008, 01:09 AM by Matt Koppenheffer
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If Citigroup were a Hollywood actor, right now we'd be seeing pictures of a rumpled star donning sunglasses to cover up bloodshot eyes, and assuring the press that he made some mistakes, but that his troubles are behind him. Some press would decry a waste of talent and a bad example for the kids, while others would say that they feel sorry for him and hope he gets the help he needs.

Citigroup the bank isn't far from that. It had the global reach, the brand, and supposedly the talent. Now its new CEO is trying to pick up the pieces and the company is finding itself the butt of jokes. Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney thinks there's little hope for a turnaround and quipped that "even Stephen Hawking could not pull this off" (kudos to Meredith for the very quotable moment). Douglas McIntyre at 24/7 Wall St. thinks that a pessimist case puts the stock at $10 by year end.

Meanwhile, DealBreaker -- in hilarious DealBreaker style -- wonders out loud whether the extreme bearishness of Whitney and others signals a counter-case to go long on Citi. After all, any former presumptuous air of greatness has been beaten out of Citi. At this point Citi's $124 billion valuation makes its platform and $2.2 trillion of assets worth less than Apple, Google, and formerly smaller competitor JPMorgan.

Over 4,000 players in The Motley Fool's CAPS community seem to agree that Citi is worth a look. Over the weekend, nycmouse chimed in on the stock and said:

I think most of the worst for Citigroup is behind them now, not that there won't be any more bad news -- I think there will be, just not as devastating as earlier and I think [CEO Vikram] Pandit will do everything he can to justify his existence.


Socialistnyc had a similar take earlier in the month and penned:

Being the global bank that it is, Citibank will be around for a long long time, despite its part in the subprime lending debacle. Trading at less than half what it was less than a year ago, patient traders can take advantage of its current low pricing.


My take? Citigroup really does have a great underlying banking business. Unfortunately, it's currently linked up with some other business groups -- such as investment banking -- which are at best unimpressive. It is also strapped to a huge pile of assets that nobody seems to know how to deal with -- least of all Citi. So while I wouldn't say that Citi's stock is a guaranteed stinker, there are better bets out there right now.

Do you have your own opinion on Citi? Head over to CAPS and let the 100,000 investors already on CAPS know what you think.

Start using the MSN CAPS stock-picking system and you could win $15,000.  To learn more, read this.

 

Comments

 

There is a case for buying citygroup if you have so much cash you need to lose a bunch to off set the sale of those oil futures and don't want a huge tax bill.  Citi is the cause of an near economic global depression by lending money to people who didn't want to pay them back  even if they could have.  city should go bankrupt but i say sell at any price over $1 american while you. can.  but the qqqq, appl visa, or google with any city bank money you have left. and hurry

Tom from Austin, TX

Citi is a house of cards much like the US economy and stock market. The recession in the US will continue to get worse. Depresssion 2009.

Depression 2009 seems far more the truth then anyone is willing to tell us. If something like Citi Corp goes under, those waiting for that moment to dawn are  already poised to bail, prosper and be told now, have rehearsed to tell us that it's a much shocking occurrence, as much as it isn't. I hate the lies and deceit that countinue in the way the US does business... companies and politicians.Lies spread all over the world. Some of the world is gonna feel it too!

Citi did what a lot of pepole did, made quick money without the realized foresite to see the long term devastation. But they were good on all other fronts to make us money so they may hold and recover by the 1st of the year. After their debochol is nothing like as bad as the Wal-mart stock which still has not recovered (due to their stupidity).

keep an eye on this for the next two months,if nothing drastic happens citi could be a good buy.my last buy on this was a few years back at $12.50,sold to early at $40.00.

I worked over 30 years for Citi in the Smith Barney division. When Citi made acquisitions, they never combined duplicate back office areas, and lost whatever synergies there might have been. Now, with their backs against the wall, they're canning the people -- the LITTLE people -- who actually do the dirty work, just to get a head count. The are cutting off their own limbs. The inmates are now running the asylum. This company is going under.

Wow. The doom and gloom. Citi will be fine. I wouldn't exactly go out and buy it, but I would consider buying under $22 or so. And Dan Rangel, take a chill pill, have you seen how anyone else does business? Western businesses have whole departments that handle corruption and bribery in emerging markets. It's ridicilous. How the US does business. Sure we have problems, but it's not as bad as you guys make it out to be.

In chapter 8 of Ben Graham's book,  The Intelligent Investor, he gives a very strong example of the current state of affairs. The only difference is that the time period was 1937-1939, instead of 2007-2009, and the stock being used as an exampe was The Great Atlantic Tea company, instead of Citigroup.  

Both companies have a lot in common in that they were very large, global in reach, and were trading at roughly the same valuations, over the same time period.

Over the 3 year period, there was a recession, a bear market, and a recovery.  The only difference between then and now, is that investors ...

a. have extrapolated the current bear market into a depression.

b. don't have enough investment experience, or more importantly, faith in the u.s. economy and its markets,  to believe in the upside of the cycle.  Tell someone Citigroup will be trading at 60 by the end of 2009, and they will look at you like you've lost your mind.  Yet, this is totally in the relm of probability, not possibility.

Word for word, you could basically substitute Citigroup, for The Atlantic Tea Co. and see that over the last 70 years, NOTHING has changed.  The actual practice of buying low, and selling high, is extremely counterintuitive to most people.  If it were easy, most pople would be wealthy.

Warrren Buffet said that particular chapter, in addition to chapter 20, were the two best essays ever written about investing. Investors seem to forget that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway stock sank by more than 30% from March 1998 to March 2000, while the s&p 500 rose from roughly 1000 to 1500. That same stock has produced an annualized rate of return of 7%, vs. 3% for the s&p 500 from 1998-2008.  

Thus, the moral of the story seems to be that if you're not willing to be out of step with the market over the short term, buying the type of securities ( like Citigroup, Pfizer, GE, toll Brothers, Harley davidson,...etc..etc..) that no one else wants, you have NO chance of beating the market over a long period of time.

Well said Thomas Edmonds. Citi is not going anywhere. Now is the time to buy.

Citi at one time was worth about $8.00 a share back in the early 90's. No body want to buy these shares. Then it was bailed out and grew into a great bank. Unfortunately, you then got some CEO's that knew nothing about banking and just about ruined the co. again. Why did they get a jerk like  Charles Prince to be

CEO and he knew nothing about banking. They let a great person like Jaime Dimon

go to J.P. Morgan and look what he has done. CITI, get and keep great banking people in your co and you will come out smelling like a rose.

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