Is there a case for buying Citigroup?
Posted
May 13 2008, 01:09 AM
by
Matt Koppenheffer
Rating:
If Citigroup were a Hollywood actor, right now we'd be seeing pictures of a rumpled star donning sunglasses to cover up bloodshot eyes, and assuring the press that he made some mistakes, but that his troubles are behind him. Some press would decry a waste of talent and a bad example for the kids, while others would say that they feel sorry for him and hope he gets the help he needs.
Citigroup the bank isn't far from that. It had the global reach, the brand, and supposedly the talent. Now its new CEO is trying to pick up the pieces and the company is finding itself the butt of jokes. Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney thinks there's little hope for a turnaround and quipped that "even Stephen Hawking could not pull this off" (kudos to Meredith for the very quotable moment). Douglas McIntyre at 24/7 Wall St. thinks that a pessimist case puts the stock at $10 by year end.
Meanwhile, DealBreaker -- in hilarious DealBreaker style -- wonders out loud whether the extreme bearishness of Whitney and others signals a counter-case to go long on Citi. After all, any former presumptuous air of greatness has been beaten out of Citi. At this point Citi's $124 billion valuation makes its platform and $2.2 trillion of assets worth less than Apple, Google, and formerly smaller competitor JPMorgan.
Over 4,000 players in The Motley Fool's CAPS community seem to agree that Citi is worth a look. Over the weekend, nycmouse chimed in on the stock and said:
I think most of the worst for Citigroup is behind them now, not that there won't be any more bad news -- I think there will be, just not as devastating as earlier and I think [CEO Vikram] Pandit will do everything he can to justify his existence.
Socialistnyc had a similar take earlier in the month and penned:
Being the global bank that it is, Citibank will be around for a long long time, despite its part in the subprime lending debacle. Trading at less than half what it was less than a year ago, patient traders can take advantage of its current low pricing.
My take? Citigroup really does have a great underlying banking business. Unfortunately, it's currently linked up with some other business groups -- such as investment banking -- which are at best unimpressive. It is also strapped to a huge pile of assets that nobody seems to know how to deal with -- least of all Citi. So while I wouldn't say that Citi's stock is a guaranteed stinker, there are better bets out there right now.
Do you have your own opinion on Citi? Head over to CAPS and let the 100,000 investors already on CAPS know what you think.
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