Why hedge funds are in the hole
Posted
Apr 25 2008, 04:46 AM
by
Jon Markman
Rating:
Every frat house manager knows that if you want to end a party, you take away the keg. And that’s pretty much all you need to know about why the stock market is so sluggish this year.
The banks have sharply cut back on the credit they’ve allocated to hedge funds, making less money available to purchase stocks and bonds of all stripes. Less borrowing = less buying power. It's pretty simple.
The latest evidence of this action has come from reporters at the Financial Times, who say they’ve discovered that the most leveraged funds are now borrowing no more than five times their asset base -- down from at least 10 times their base six months ago. That means a $100 million hedge fund that was buying up to $1 billion worth of stocks a year ago now can only buy less than $500 million worth. That's a big difference.
Banks are motivated not just by hedge funds’ losses, but by a need to more carefully tend to their own ravaged balance sheets. They're more conservative because they have less maneuvering room for mistakes. As you might imagine, this sort of thing hurts the smaller hedge funds much more than the large ones – but it is really impairing progress for all.
Among publicly traded companies with major hedge funds operations, we can see that Och-Ziff Capital Management, is still trading more than 40% off its November IPO price around an all-time low, while Blackstone and Fortress Investment Group also continue to struggle not far from their lows.
Could these companies’ managers really have all turned from champs to chumps in the blink of an eye? Probably not. If you want to bet that the hedge -fund business will eventually recover, my favorite play at this time would be Brookfield Asset Management of Canada. It’s been knocked down by big investments in real estate, timber, infrastructure and electric power, but should come blazing back ahead of the pack when Wall Street’s mood turns more positive.