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New wheat crisis plagues world food supply

Posted Mar 27 2008, 03:46 AM by Jon Markman
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If it seems like you are paying more for your cereal, beer and pizza lately, shake your fist in the direction of Pakistan, Uganda and Argentina, because a weird confluence of international events are combining to slash the world supply of wheat and boost prices. The downside of globalization is that a crop failure 10,000 miles away can lead to pricier brewskis here. 

It's actually a lot more serious than that. The New Scientist magazine reports that a wheat disease that started in central Africa actually threatens to destroy most of the world wheat crop, leaving millions to starve. A fungus called Ug99 has already spread from Africa to Iran and is bearing down on Pakistan, according to the report. This is bad news because Pakistan and Punjab wheat is extremely important to the entire food chain of the densely populous plains of South Asia.

According to reports, scientists hope to slow the spread of Ug99 by spraying new forms of fungicide but the only real firebreak will come when agronomists are able to create Ug99-resistant strains of wheat over the next few years. The disease, which is said to be a super-strong strain of black stem rust, first came to light in Uganda in 1999 and has since ruined crops in Kenya, Ethiopia and Yemen. Now winds are expected to take the spores to Egypt, Turkey, Syria and Iran. Chinese scientists are said to be on a crash program to develop Ug99-resistant wheat strains before the disease ravages its already weakened croplands.

Meanwhile, down in Argentina, a three-week protest by farmers has curtailed shipments of wheat into supermarkets, pushing that country into its worst political crisis since 2002. News media report that thousands of farmers are withholding meat and grains from wholesalers and blocking country roads to oppose a hike in export taxes. Argentina’s president, Cristina Kirchner, has accused farmers of extortion, while protesters fill streets, banging pots and pans.

Food shortages in Buenos Aires are worsening, and the media reports that shops have run out of beef and chicken, while fruits and vegetables are soaring in price. The government is said to be digging in its heels on the tax increases that it believes are necessary to support social programs such as fuel and health care subsidies, while farmers say they are being unfairly targeted. The upshot is that the turmoil has also curtailed exports, putting strains on world wheat prices.

For more on the worldwide food crisis, see my column of March 6, "Could we really run out of food?"

Comments

 

Wheat plays a very small part in the brewing process for AB.  The rising beer prices are due to barley shortages (I guess you could draw the similarity there) and very heavily due to the hop shortage.  

Keep in mind mind the big brewers use mostly rice in their beers and have long-term contracts with suppliers preventing shortages from impacting prices too much.  

This was a poorly researched article.

Why are we still paying farmers not to grow crops?

How much wheat does the US produce annually?  How much of it is exported?  How much is sold versus given freely?

The current MAJOR beer ingredients shortage involves mainly hops and malted barley, not wheat (which sees limited use mainly in speciality Weiss beers).  In the case of Bud they also apparently use lots of corn and rice, so maybe they will have the least problem of all brewers.  Watch for many more rye beers appearing from U.S. craft brewers as well.

I needed to drink less beer anyways.

This is what we get when we refuse to drill for oil and set aside thousands of acres of productive farmland for CRP...and those are just US policies.

Wake up America the West is facing a complete shutdown of farming in our next drought cycle. Cities will get all the available water farms will dry up. We need major water projects i.e. more off stream storage, canals around sensitve delta's and more and bigger dams. Bio has driven the cost of fertilizer's and nutriiants double and in some cases four times. The high cost of corn has bankrupted the states (CA) first major bio plant within it's first year of operation. There will be no little farmer within five years, it is all about economics today. This is not 1933 with a few chickens in the the back yard, a milk cow, and a garden, city folks today will riot if their fav brown bag market has empty shelves, they have no food production skills or land to produce for a family on. There has to become a way to just start building sure there will be some mistakes but look at the Auburn Dam study started in the mid 1940's funded over and over construction even started million's of dollars way more than the cost spent and no dam BUT 1000-1500 people a year do enjoy great rive rafting for a two month period hmmmm 300,000,000 Americans waiting in bread lines ya ya kinda makes sence rafting food rafting food I'll get it just give me time.

Why don't we just trade oil for wheat and keep all the prices down so that average

person can afforded to live.

Seems like we have a lot of good farm land here in America.  Why cant we grow more wheat here?  Come on now.  American products deserve American grown and produced ingredients.  Also, why import when when we could just a easily export.

John,

Although both points are valid. Neither of these are actually affecting the price of wheat and thus our grocery prices.  The real culprit are the hedge funds that have poured into the commodity markets due to a suffering wall street.  These hedge funds are purely speculating in the commodity markets i.e. CBOT, MGE, KCBOT and are driving the "bubble" of wheat prices.  These prices have nearly tripled in the last year because of the speculative buyers.  These hedge funds along with droughts in Australia and South America and a more refined diet by much of the world i.e. India, China and Southeast Asia are the true drivers in higher commodity prices.  Americans are blindly blaming ethanol which does deserve a piece of the blame but not the whole burden.  The U.S. is the largest supplier of wheat into the world market followed by Canada.  If this wheat stays in the U.S. instead of flooding into the world market due to droughts elsewhere than the wheat prices will begin to return to historic levels.

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