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Consumer electronics disaster ahead, analyst predicts

Posted Mar 13 2008, 02:02 PM by Kim Peterson
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Jonathan Goldberg seems like a glass-half-empty kinda guy. The Deutsche Bank analyst has been checking in with retailers for weeks about consumer electronics sales, and many companies told him they "have yet to see an impact" in earnings from any economic slowdown.

Sounds great, right? Nope, Goldberg interprets that to mean the worst is yet to come. "The increase in gas prices and difficulties in home financing will have to reduce consumer spending, and as this becomes apparent to companies we will face a round of missed quarters and lowered guidance," he wrote in a note to investors.

Goldberg cut price targets today on four companies: GPS device maker Garmin, wireless chipmaker Atheros, wireless networking hardware maker Netgear and mobile content maker Glu Mobile. Shares of all four companies are down today, and Glu Mobile seeing the worst drop of nearly 9%.

Glu is going to have a tough time, Goldberg says, because it's getting more expensive to license content for mobile devices. Game companies are asking for as much as $2 million plus royalties for placing a version of their hit games on cell phones. 

If consumer electronics sales are headed for bust, I wonder why more analysts aren't being pessimistic about one of the ultimate consumer electronics companies: Apple. Our chart shows that 11 analysts rate Apple a strong buy, and five rate it a moderate buy. No one is advising to sell. 

At any rate, the retailers seem to be happy about how the economy is going. Are they missing the big picture here? Is the consumer electronics space in danger?

Disclosures: I don't own shares of any companies mentioned in this post. And while Microsoft owns this blog, Microsoft does not control, censor or otherwise have any editorial influence over what I write. 

Comments

 

I would agree that many tech companies, specifically those in consumer electronics, are in for a rough ride for the next year or so...however, Apple could be another story, and yet again, the exception to the tech sector.  

While Apple has relatively good and stable market penetration for computing products (notebooks and desktop devices), their quest to infuse the iPhone into the global markets is just starting.  Apple has had a great introduction into the U.S. markets with the iPhone, and I think demand will remain steady as the late adopters limp in to Apple stores ready to finally buy.  Globally; however, Apple should see a lot of expansion with the iPhone over the next two years.  Once they penetrate the global markets, it may then be the time to begin thinking about dumping the stock - provided Steve Jobs doesn't have another ace up his sleeve for a new market altering product.

The whole thing comes down to oil once this oil bubble bursts and gets back down to 70-80 dollars a barrel (Those saudis are living large in there gold and marble supersize palaces),retailers will have at least 8 good Quarters, women and men will go buy things they have been putting off this year. The mortgage crisis will turn around people will feel alot better about there house security plus its been a long winter (cold, snow, recession wories) plus we will have a new president hopefully better foreign relations across the world ,so everyone buying the commidity oil knock it off or it will be 200 dollars a barrel    

I'm saving my money too. If electronics dealers want my money, they have to get down prices and I mean really really down. I got everything I need... even my home is paid so... I'm bullet proof

i love apple i always buy the new stuff they come out with, recently i got an iphone that replace my ipod touch and i always have the best of eveerything

My friends and I love buying new toys. Yes saving is important and all but you have to have some fun and enjoy and spend hard earned cash in life as a relief. Who knows how long you'll be herel. ENJOY the ipod touch.

Apple's stock has been murdered over the last 3 months, purely on a valuation basis, it's a strong buy right now. The fundimentals are still strong even in an economic downturn, so any significant dip would trigger a strong rebound. It won't stay below $120 unless they guide low or miss earnings.

apple is a luxury brand with the latest designs, only the certain level of consumer will enjoy their creations. They function, new ideas cause you can show off your wealth. It's like owning a sports car. Since their designs are leading the industries. There are lots of supported consumers will continue to buy whatever they make.

let say art is priceless

We are basicly non consumers until gas prices get below1.75 a gallon. We are paying off the last credit card and there will be no more.

With the price of gas, food, and utilities out stripping any raise's we got we have no choice.

Oh yea, since Eddy Lambert of Sears/Kamart has decided to terminate 225 employees from Sear accounting in Dallas and send their jobs to India my wife will lose her job after 30 plus years with Sears.

It is time boycott, if you need to call customer service for any product and get a foreigner demand to speak to some one in AMERICA only that speaks ENGLISH.

Why buy something that we don't really need? Food is getting more expensive along with gas prices. If you ask me I would rather feed my family than get something that is considered a luxury in many countries.

"Apple buyers AREN'T your normal consumer." I agree with that!

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