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Is recession talk making things worse?

Posted Feb 27 2008, 06:14 PM by Matt Koppenheffer
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There are a lot of opinions running around out there as far as the economy and financial markets go. Many seem to believe that we're in the midst of a painful slowdown that could last a while, while some think that we could have another Great Depression in store and yet others say we're in a transitory down cycle.

If there's one thing for sure, it's that the market for housing has been downright terrible. New home sales are plummeting, existing home sales are hurting, and home prices are dropping like never before. This brutal market has been left homebuilding companies with terrible results and plunging stock prices.

High-end builder Toll Brothers is one of the most recent builders to report, and the picture was bleak for this typically-resilient builder. Interestingly, Bob Toll, the company's CEO, said that he believes psychology and the media coverage of housing and broader economic weakness have played a big part in perpetuating the downturn: 

Ceaseless talk of a recession continues to dampen the mood of consumers in general, whether or not a recession actually occurs. For home buyers, we believe this drumbeat, coupled with concerns over mortgages, the direction of home prices, and foreclosures, has kept pent-up demand on the sidelines.

Though the comment will likely be the butt of jokes for those that believe the economic malaise runs deep, it does highlight the psychological component of major market phenomena. After all, though there were a lot of ingredients in the housing boom, one of the key additives was the belief by many speculators that they'd be able to sell their house for vastly more than they paid for it -- regardless how much they paid.

When it comes to Toll itself, investors don't have a particularly sanguine outlook on the stock. On The Motley Fool's CAPS service, the stock has 648 bears versus 434 bulls, landing it a one-star rating out of a possible five. Though some players see a bottom to all this and have been getting positive on Toll recently, pessimism still seems to dominate. Earlier this month, CAPS player housingtrack asserted:

No bottom yet [for Toll]. Toll specializes in high end homes. Still tough to get Jumbos and Alt-A mortgages. Strong management, but market conditions are stronger. Target $12 by June 2008.

Do you think you have a beat on where the housing market is going? Head over to CAPS and share your insights with the 84,000 investors already on CAPS.

Comments

 

Why should consumers be left in the dark - isn't this what caused the "mess" in the first place.  Consumers going into debt because they felt confident that they would be able to have a secure future.  I guess it would be better for them to keep spending until they are unable to pay for food or fuel.  What then?  The consumer needs to be educated as well as corporate and business owners.  Afterall, we are the "props" of this economy - treat us fairly and life will go on.  Wage-earners and middle class are stretched to the max - we can't keep hoping on winning the lottery.  Pricing must come down if you want all the players involved.

Bush said it best. "we built more houses than we need". Her in Oklahoma it seems that everyone with a hammer is building houses. The baby boomers are winding down and it is starting to show in the housing market. The mortgage companies tried to keep the boom up buy offering different packages to consumers to sweeten the appeal of buying a new house and now they are paying the price.

I could not agree more with Bob Toll, we've been hearing the recession word for several month's now, without care for whether or not we are headed that way by the numbers. The media needs to go back to reporting facts, after the fact, and quit trying to predict the future. They have created the majority of this slow-down by irresponsible use of the word recession. Look up the definition and check the GDP for yourself.

Dan

still going south along with the mortgage market or credit crunch

losses will be 50% more than they are today

Recession is a psychological phenomenon.  Yes we have a housing slump, but that is the best time to buy, and that should start with the uncoming spring season.  Our unemployment rate is gasped at by the press as being around 5%.  That's great.  Five percent of our population is unemployable, being addicts, having severe handicaps or just plain bums.  But, the press does not like this administration so they are going to talk us into a recession to get their party elected.  Well I simply refuse to participate.  Bush isn't running again so what's their problem?  Bad news sell papers, even if it screws up the country and we all pay for it.  They are creating and then preying on our lack of confidence.

I definitely think the media is adding to the unstable economy by constant recession talk. It scares people. I for one, I would rather see the glass half full than half empty.  I do not believe the economy is as bad as the media would have us believe but it will be if people panic and shut down spending. It is going to be a self fulfilling prophecy. Where I live house prices are not going down but are stable. I also think that people in this country need to suck it up and stop living so far beyond their means and quit using their homes like a piggy bank to refinance and pay off credit card debt.

"Ceaseless talk of a recession continues to dampen the mood of consumers in general, whether or not a recession actually occurs. For home buyers, we believe this drumbeat, coupled with concerns over mortgages, the direction of home prices, and foreclosures, has kept pent-up demand on the sidelines". Where this is very incitefil, there is one component not mentioned and may be far more reaching, FEAR, plain and simple FEAR.

The media is contributing to the so called recession.  Business appeared to be going as usual and the media starts talking recession.  Within a matter of several weeks everything has slowed.  The news media needs to cool it with the recession talk.  It wasn't broken until the media discussed it day in and day out.  Now everyone has started listening.  You are the one who needs to fix it now before it gets out of hand.

The malls are packed every weekend, it is tough to get into a restaurant between 6 and 8, traffic is terrible every day, I do not want to here there is a recession, people are spending likes it is there jobs, maybe our economic expectations are too high

Does a recovering drug addict go to rehab to keep hearing negetive feedback? NO, This is only putting fuel on the fire. I mean come on, are we so stupid that we cant see this or does the media see this and just not care about our(countries)well-being!! Probably the later!

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