Is recession talk making things worse?
Posted
Feb 27 2008, 06:14 PM
by
Matt Koppenheffer
There are a lot of opinions running around out there as far as the economy and financial markets go. Many seem to believe that we're in the midst of a painful slowdown that could last a while, while some think that we could have another Great Depression in store and yet others say we're in a transitory down cycle.
If there's one thing for sure, it's that the market for housing has been downright terrible. New home sales are plummeting, existing home sales are hurting, and home prices are dropping like never before. This brutal market has been left homebuilding companies with terrible results and plunging stock prices.
High-end builder Toll Brothers is one of the most recent builders to report, and the picture was bleak for this typically-resilient builder. Interestingly, Bob Toll, the company's CEO, said that he believes psychology and the media coverage of housing and broader economic weakness have played a big part in perpetuating the downturn:
Ceaseless talk of a recession continues to dampen the mood of consumers in general, whether or not a recession actually occurs. For home buyers, we believe this drumbeat, coupled with concerns over mortgages, the direction of home prices, and foreclosures, has kept pent-up demand on the sidelines.
Though the comment will likely be the butt of jokes for those that believe the economic malaise runs deep, it does highlight the psychological component of major market phenomena. After all, though there were a lot of ingredients in the housing boom, one of the key additives was the belief by many speculators that they'd be able to sell their house for vastly more than they paid for it -- regardless how much they paid.
When it comes to Toll itself, investors don't have a particularly sanguine outlook on the stock. On The Motley Fool's CAPS service, the stock has 648 bears versus 434 bulls, landing it a one-star rating out of a possible five. Though some players see a bottom to all this and have been getting positive on Toll recently, pessimism still seems to dominate. Earlier this month, CAPS player housingtrack asserted:
No bottom yet [for Toll]. Toll specializes in high end homes. Still tough to get Jumbos and Alt-A mortgages. Strong management, but market conditions are stronger. Target $12 by June 2008.
Do you think you have a beat on where the housing market is going? Head over to CAPS and share your insights with the 84,000 investors already on CAPS.