Apple: Two months to a 52-week low? - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
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Apple: Two months to a 52-week low?

Posted Feb 25 2008, 11:28 AM by Douglas McIntyre
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Apple has already dropped below its six-month low and it could break below its 52-week low in April. The stock traded between $99 and $100 the last few days of April 2007. It traded at $117.18 today, down from $202.96 in late December.

Apple will announced its earnings in the last week in April. If it doesn't nail its numbers and give positive guidance, the shares could easily fall below $100 again. Right now, analysts expect EPS of $1.05 up from $0.87 in the same quarter last year. The consensus estimate for revenue is $6.95 billion, up 32%.

Analysts recently have expressed concerns about slow iPod sales. Quoted by Barron's, JP Morgan wrote “signs point to iPod saturation and some macro sensitivity.” Bernstein recently expressed concerns that iPhone sales were running below the rate that Apple hopes to hit in 2008.

Almost every Wall Street firm covering Apple believes that Mac sales are strong and should be through the quarter. That will not offset a slowing of iPod sales. There is a very real possibility that people who might buy an iPhone this quarter will wait to see if a 3G version is announced for shipment by the middle of the year.

Apple, of course, isn't immune to a recession. PCs, smartphones, and digital media players are a luxury for many people. Apple may end up with the best product line of any consumer electronics firm in the world, but weak demand because of an economic slowdown.

Comments

 

Oh please.....the problem with Apple is Jobs won't play the game, they always under promise and over deliver because of SarBox....the street knows that so when there is any chance to knock the Apple share price down the market does it immediately because it knows Apple won't comment and by fall there is a killing to be made.  It dropped on their outlook, which was the same as the proceeding what 6, 8 10 quarters.  Don't over think this.....it's big institutions first taking profit and then creating earnings opportunities for themselves.  Look back over the last number of years and see if that's not right!!  It manipulation....period.

Yesterday I went into the new Apple store on Chestnut St. in San Francisco with a friend to buy an iphone.  They were sold out of the 16g in that store and we were told that this was the case for the entire bay area.  There was no time frame of when they would be in stock.  Quit listening to Analysts from investment companies about what people will buy or not buy.  Ask a teenager or go find out for yourself.  Jim Cramer is for entertainment purposes only and CNBC is hazerdous to your wealth!

Could it be that the ipod market is nearing saturation?  The macbook air is a turkey? OSX 10.5 is less stable and less usable than 10.4?  Apple tv still is horrible. The iphone while it looks pretty is cumbersom to use and fails at just being a phone?  That macs are over priced and short on performance?  Look at www.macbookrandomshutdown.com  to see what I mean.

Or could it be that now that people are starting to learn Vista its taking off big time?  And SP1 will fix its admited short comings. The most popular os in the world, XP, had its share of problems when it first came out in 2001.

I can't beleive there are still Windows bashers out there.  There is nothing wrong with Vista.  Oh sure, some people had to upgrade their 4 year old printers and other items.  Plus some software.

But at least MS didn't throw out their entire OS and make a new one. AND change the CPU!  My 5 YEAR second system that has 128 video card runs Vista just fine.

Oh yeah, they didn't run a bunch of commercials bashing their competition, making false and misleading statements. Apple has fooled a bunch of you with slick marketing and sub-par products.  But you just follow like good little lemmings, buying the crap (even overpriced as it is) AND buying their stock (even OVERPRICED as it was). They got you from both ends!

I don't like Macs because of the OS.  I don't like Macs because of the people who sell them and the people that  use it.  Get over yourselves. Quit bashing other poeple and learn to help all computer users out no matter what system you have.  Then, MAYBE you can make a positive difference!

The problem with the market right now  is that anyone who wants an iPod probably already has one- and apple will have to totally revamp the look and feel of the iPod so people will get excited to buy another one. Also, people who do want an mp3 player but aren't particular to Apple have their pick of devices that are just as good and more competitively priced. Myself as an example. I like the iPod touch, but I don't need mail, maps, weather, etc that are already on my phone, and for Less than the price of smallest (8gb) ipod touch, I purchased an 80Gb Zune (that's 10X more storage!), that has a wider screen, radio, and just about every other feature that regular iPods have. Granted, the software is not iTunes, and there's no cool touch screen, but I feel like I got the most bang for my buck and I won't need another device for a VERY long time. For me it's the iPod killer.

I'm 65 years old and was considering buying an 8g ipod. When 65 year olds start looking at hi-tec, usually it's at the end of the run. Like the stock market, when the janitor starts buying stocks because the market is up, it's time to sell because it has peaked. From my stand point, it's time to lower prices why there's still a market.

Would you guys be willing to purchase an MP4 player, with 4G or more, for around $150? I know this company that's getting started up within a month or two, selling MP3/MP4 players, for about this price, and it's called Gig-Grabber. They will have bigger screens, and not be restricted to i-tunes. Be on the look out for it- the website will be up and running by summer. Remember-Gig-grabber!

to answer the above message , we lose one of the largest retailers in portable digital media,  and anouther company must take its place ! ( yea like that will ever happen ) If you notice , reguardless of loss in stock price the company is still making a rediculous amount of money and there is no sign of  a slow down there sales are expected to increase ?

So many of you are whiny, idiot Windows users who know nothing, nothing at all, about Apple and its stock.  My iPhone is the greatest gadget I've ever held, my Mac G5 is incomparably better to any old PC I've ever owned, and my shuffle...well, it's a remarkably simple, perfect little music player.  Apple stock will be back up to 200 and beyond soon.  Of course a bear market will pull it down in the short run.  Wall Street can be schizo in unsure times.  But the fact remains that Apple is an incredibly innovative company with enormous potential and it will continue to delight the growing masses of Apple fans and pound the competition.  And Microsoft will putter on with its pitiful earnings.  I'm long on Apple, and I love the company.

Windows Vista is awful.  How sad there are still holdouts who keep hoping, believing that it will take off.  It's no going to.  Consumers are moving on, and Microsoft is lagging under its own bloated guts.  It can't keep up. Try a Mac, and you'll never, ever, ever go back.

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