The silver lining in more "bad news" about housing - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
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The silver lining in more "bad news" about housing

Posted Feb 20 2008, 02:50 PM by allant
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There was more "bad news" about housing this morning: Housing starts are at 16-year lows, the number of building permits fell 3% in January and mortgage applications dropped 23% last week.

This is a good thing.

There's a silver lining. The housing bubble -- a mistake to begin with -- will deflate, forcing people to live closer to their means and fixing some of the imbalances in the economy.  Maybe we begin to reconsider the idea that you have to buy a home in order to feel successful. In fact, now you may never own one.  And maybe you're better off renting anyway.

Obviously the real estate industry hopes for light at the end of the housing-gloom tunnel.  And, sure, rising home values makes owners feel richer, keeping the consumer economy humming.  Just yesterday optimists in Phoenix predicted an upturn.

But there's more reason to think we're nowhere near the end of this slump.  With long-term interest rates on an upward climb, why plunge into a mortgage now?  Plus oil is at record-high levels should continue to squeeze consumers.

What's so bad about this?  What factors would make you decide that it's time to buy?

UPDATE: MSN Money's Jim Jubak will be joining a panel at the MSN Money-Reuters housing summit today in New York to discuss home ownership and the current downturn. The panel will take questions from the comments below.

Comments

 

IF A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE NOT BUYING HOMES AND IF THE INDUSTRY IS NOT

BUILDING HOMES; DOES THAT MEAN THAT EQUITY IN HOMES WIL NOT GO UP?

When you you predict things will get better with real estate? Is real estate still a wise investment for the long run?

Buy now if you can afford it.  With a new President being elected this year the market will become more optimistic and current prices will begin to rise moderately.

Will the new lending rules stop Stated Income and Interest Only loans for everyone or just people with FICO scores under a certain level?  My FICO's are at 750.

Rob's question about builders offering lease-to-own deals to move inventory is interesting. Has anyone heard of a builder doing this?

It is a sad thing that consumers can not trust those who call themselves experts to give them the right advice. Many of these houses were never meant to be paid off. The brokers, relators, and many other people involved all the way donw to closing were all conspiring together to make money off of every bodies ignorance. My husband and I went to three different seminars and we were given the impression that we could trust the lenders and the brokers. We actually needed a lawyer to come with us to closing but that is impossible unless he is already on retainer and at your beck and call. Why doesn't somebody care enough to make sure that we don't get swindle just because we want to own our home. This is what we have been programmed to believe is the right thing to do. And for hard working people most of the time it is our only tax break. My husband and I never knew the interest rate was high on our house, but they told us it  would go down over the next three years and after two we could refinance and get a better rate.

I was raised in a housing project and to own my own home was a dream come true  I could not have imagined 12.9% was unheard of. The house was already on foreclosure for some time and our bid was 75,500 at closing it was 77,500 and the taxes for the year was supposed to be paid by the seller HUD. Not so. It has been a nightmare ever since. People just think you're stupid and you don't want to pay your bills but it is not true. Listening to all of these people talk about all of us like we are inanimate objects because we trusted people that we should have been able to trust is incrediblly painful, but people like us have always gotten slapped down and we have learned to get up and dust ourselves off and try again. I don't mean to offend anybody I just wanted you to know that we did not cause all of these problems on purpose.

why not buy before mortgage rates do increase? or while lumber is bumping along the bottom of historic llows - which won't last forever. If a family wasn't counting on "phantom equity" they could recognize that selling at the market low is OK if you buy at the market low. the spread is the same. Or maybe the Today Show is wrong. Maybe real estate cannot be captured in a national picture. maybe it is made of hundreds of smaller markets and just maybe some of them are OK. Maybe they weren't subjected to investor run ups and there fore not subjected to the market volatility that has gripped markets in Florida, Nevada, California. By the time the national media figured out there was a housing down turn and jumped on the bandwagon of bashing real estate in 2007 the permit data showed the decline began in 2005. by the time they figure out the market has recovered - and begin reporting it, buyers will miss out on a great "Buyer's market".

I would think if the experts (so to speak) stopped telling everyone that the end of the world is coming. That maybe people would start feeling better about buying and selling.  That is a win win situation for everyone.

i am a builder in frankfort,il. i like this downturn because it makes all of us come back down to reality as to our wants and needs which of course are 2 different things..you still cant get away with hard costs but the trades are sharpening there pencils along with the builders and the biggest probem of pricier homes was the land which is coming down.i believe you will see a upturn this spring for housing.i had 14 families come thru this weekend 2-16,17 all are wanting to move waiting for this to end i say.the only way it will move is when these people start buying which will start us going again IF YOU SEE SOMETHING YOU LOVE AND WANT GO TALK WITH THE BUILDER AND BUY IT NEW CONSTRUCTION IS NOT GOING ANY LOWER

The saddest part about the housing mess is that those who could never afford the mortages and would probably never have equity in these houses drove prices out of the reach of responsible individuals who probably had the down  payment but knew they could not manage the high mortages so they did not buy. It is high time that government stopped punishing those who save and do not spend money that they don't have rather than reward those who borrow money that they can never pay back.

The real estate industry has done a great job glamorizing home ownership and selling it as an investment but it is not everyones' dream.. it is a life style choice and no one should have to pay for the choices that others have made for themselves. Affordable housing makes for a strong economy. Out of reach housing prices suck the life out of the economy as we are now seeing.

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