The silver lining in more "bad news" about housing - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
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The silver lining in more "bad news" about housing

Posted Feb 20 2008, 02:50 PM by allant
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There was more "bad news" about housing this morning: Housing starts are at 16-year lows, the number of building permits fell 3% in January and mortgage applications dropped 23% last week.

This is a good thing.

There's a silver lining. The housing bubble -- a mistake to begin with -- will deflate, forcing people to live closer to their means and fixing some of the imbalances in the economy.  Maybe we begin to reconsider the idea that you have to buy a home in order to feel successful. In fact, now you may never own one.  And maybe you're better off renting anyway.

Obviously the real estate industry hopes for light at the end of the housing-gloom tunnel.  And, sure, rising home values makes owners feel richer, keeping the consumer economy humming.  Just yesterday optimists in Phoenix predicted an upturn.

But there's more reason to think we're nowhere near the end of this slump.  With long-term interest rates on an upward climb, why plunge into a mortgage now?  Plus oil is at record-high levels should continue to squeeze consumers.

What's so bad about this?  What factors would make you decide that it's time to buy?

UPDATE: MSN Money's Jim Jubak will be joining a panel at the MSN Money-Reuters housing summit today in New York to discuss home ownership and the current downturn. The panel will take questions from the comments below.

Comments

 

why does it take so long to buy a forclosed house?  

We sold our house in November 2006, just before the huge crunch.  We had to sell to re-locate out of state, but if we had to re-locate now, we would be in a huge mess!  We have been renting since we moved to PA from NH and will continue to do so for at least another year.  When we bought our house in 2000 it was the resulting slump from prior years.  We are hoping that the market will work in our favor again when it is the right time to buy!

Are lease to own deals going to be a viable option for builders to move their inventory given the the lack of interest the banks have in lending money right now.

A wise man once told me to save for whatever you want. Do not spend money you don't have.

The situation we have gotten into should never happen if we were saver's instead of spender's. When lending institutions lend money into a shaky situation, they will get burned sooner or later. Why have we put all our eggs into the housing basket?

The nation would be much better off if we saved for larger down payments, and no second morgages. Why should I not take a chance of gamble to use my cheap money and invest it into the stock market at a chance to make 10% or better.

This is what happen during the great depression, morgage at cheap rates and take the money into the market, hoping for large returns. It had to end at some point, it did, it has.

I'm looking to buy a home in the Mebane, NC area ( a small town midway between Durham and Greensboro) where we currently have a lot of homes on the market for 6 months or better.  Some being taken off and then put back on, but I don't see a price reduction going on at all.

Just because no ones reducing prices do you think I can go in with a low ball offer and be okay?

I have been FHA approved and am ready to make a move.  My budget is $150000 as my ceiling, but I would like to get this one home for a lot less than what it's listed for. Especially since it is a much older home (1972) and definately competing with brand new construction.

We now have a never ending supply of folks that now say that we had a Real Estate bubble once it had burst.

Can we have a prediction of how to invest our money, since we now have a (suppousedly) much higher inflation coming our way?

Interest rates are on the rise?  That seems to fly in the face of what the fed is reporting...

Home prices have outpaced income for several years.  It had to break sometime.  My generation of people in there 20's are entering an unaffordable housing market even with what used to be good income.  Home prices must come down much more since they have doubled or more than doubled in some areas.  This is just a reality.  I never thought 10 years ago $80-100k a year would buy so little.  What are your thoughts on where we are at and what will happen to the housing market for the middle class?

I agree!  I work in City Planning, and I see a dangerous lack of affordable (workforce) housing.  Where are working-class people supposed to live?  A housing market "correction" is badly needed.  The price of housing can't continue to rise at an unsustainable rate forever......my kids won't be able to afford a place to live in 20 years.  The article mentions "living closer to your means" which is one of the tenets of the "Smartgrowth" philosophy.  As the price of oil (and housing) continues to rise, people (and local governments) will find it economically unfeasible to continue to sprawl development across the countryside.  One answer to energy independence is changing the way we develop - infill development, higher density development, brownfield redevelopment, and walkable/bikable communties (not to mention the need to develop domestic energy supplies).  Shame on the lending companies for making risky loans and then asking the government to bail them out!  And shame on the borrowers for taking on more debt than they can afford.  

There are plenty of houses and plenty of money to borrow. It is the lenders pulling in the reigns and unwilling to allow people who can afford a home actually afford one. We all are being punished for greed and poor judgement in allowing people who could not afford a home get one!!!

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