Let's talk Valero - Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money
 
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Let's talk Valero

Posted Nov 21 2007, 06:33 PM by Matt Koppenheffer
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With Valero up almost 26% over the past 12 months versus the paltry sub-3% return of the S&P 500, it seems as good a time as any to question whether the stock can continue to deliver market-beating returns.

Though refiners like Valero don't directly profit from higher oil prices, rising prices do tend to boost the crack spread that refiners do profit from. And though oil fell back from the highs that it touched earlier in the day, it is still breathing down the neck of $100 per barrel.

On The Motley Fool's CAPS service, Valero has managed to score a perfect five-star rating from an aggregate 2,740 investor ratings (2,640 bulls versus just 100 bears). Though other refiners such as Delek and Alon share similarly high ratings, Valero blows both out of the water in terms of the total number of players bullish on the stock. [readmore]

Hukphinn, one of CAPS top rated players, has been bullish on Valero for over a year now and gave this pitch in support of the stock:

[Valero] is the largest independent U.S. refiner of oil, and it has a unique capacity to process sour crude, which represents a great proportion of the new supply of oil (e.g., from Saudi Arabia and, to a much lesser but increasing extent, the Canadian oil sands). Since new refineries are not coming online anytime soon, and other refiners don't have, and are not likely to develop in the short to medium-term, the capacity to process sour crude effectively, Valero enjoys a competitive advantage that will likely benefit its shareholders for some time to come.


There are still a lot of unknowns out there when it comes to the magnitude and duration of the housing debacle and how much exposure our financial institutions have to instruments barely worth the paper they were printed on. In an uncertain environment, the large and growing need for energy seems to be a pretty safe bet. Unless new refineries start springing from the earth, or it turns out Valero has been sitting on a bunch of subprime CDOs, I think CAPS players have highlighted a winner.

(Full disclosure: I do not have a financial position in any of the companies mentioned.)

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Comments

 

Just plain old corporate america greed, and as long as big corporate america stays in the politicians coat pockets, nothing will change. Their motto: They may scream, but they will still pay.  My motto: People should not be afraid of government, government should be afraid of the people.  

Its all A scam!!!! If the price of oil is controlled by speculation in the futures market, then why is the price felt immediately at the pump? Now what about the price of diesel? Its been over the top for years and no-one seems to know that it is the waste  in the gasoline process, WHY does it cost more than gas. I am sure the oil companies have an interesting explanation. GREED The DOWN FALL of AMERICA !!!!!

The problem isn't only the price of oil.  It is the lack of refining capacity here in the US.  I question how much of the gasoline refined in the US is used in the US?  Do we sell any of it to other nations?  

One needs to look at the cost of getting a barrel of oil.  The cost of services to drill for and produce oil have increased more thatn three times in the past few  years and no one accounts for the number of million dollar dry holes that are drilled in the search for new oil as well as the billion dollar expenditures it takes to bring on new oil reserves in the Gulf of Mexico or remote locations in the US and elsewhere around the world.  I can vouch for the thousands of employees for the oil companies and I don't see many of us gettting very rich.   It's time that many of  you folks do a little research before  spouting off on blog sites.

Well, I just think its control issues. on 1 other note. I believe in darwinism. so basically, If you dont have somthing nice to say, go play in traffic

Why does this always turn into a bunch of people whining about the oil industry and not an actual discussion?  No one complained when oil prices were low and oil companies were going bankrupt.  Today’s market is different then the past, America will no longer be the largest market and the growth potential is minimal as compared to areas like India and China.  We now have to compete with them to get the same natural resources and for them to fuel there economic growth they are willing to pay a higher price for the natural resources.  

There are a lot of reasons given to justify the current price of gas. If all these reasons are true shouldn't the profit margin of "Big Oil" remain the same? If it is true that it cost the oil companies more to produce gasoline, then the profit margin should remain relatively the same, right? Maybe I am just over simplifying things. Or maybe I am sick of being gouged at the pump.

Just a few comments that I wrote on this subject last year after Exxon's big profits that I consider germane to this conversation as well.

Exxon/Mobil’s profit margin is by far (at least half and usually a third of other companies!) one of the lowest in the world. For example Exxon’s profit margin was 9.1% in the first quarter of ’05 which was a record, it is

usually around 7.5%. by contrast Google’s was 29.1% and Microsoft’s current margin is over 31% !!!

Exxon’s profits in dollars look huge, bit it is because it is the largest company in the USA by far and has huge sales numbers. Let’s look at the numbers: the following are market caps (values) for some of the

companies we have talked about plus GE. Ford – 13.6 bil, GM – 11.6 bil, Google – 122 bil, Microsoft – 280 bil. Want to guess Exxon’s? 392 bil, !!!! GE is the only one that is close at 350 billion. Also, Exxon had

sales of 328 billion last year compared to 146 billion for GE. Therefore Exxon’s profits are a function of size not greed!! And while enjoying record profits now nobody is going to bail out Exxon when oil and gas prices

plummet as we all know they will! AKA the airlines! They will have to be able to sustain themselves through these times while everyone is happy buying $1.25 gasoline!

Also, would you like to know who makes the most money on gasoline? You guessed it! The government!!!  The link below is a good article to add to my hodgepodge facts and also includes the info. on taxes generate from fuel.

www.freemarketproject.org/.../news20051102.asp

And lastly with so many industries in the US on the verge of destruction airlines, 2 of the Big 3 auto makers etc… I think we should be proud of our strong leadership in this industry.

OK I guess the above wasn’t last! Lest we ever forget that the number 1 factor in the American way of life and our country’s security is energy! If we want our national security and lifestyle outsourced to India (metaphorically speaking, of course it will actually be to Islamic extremists in the Middle East) so it will be cheap and convenient for our grossly over-consumptive, lazy, and spoiled lifestyle then let’s try to hurt our domestic oil producers.

I think I will buy my gas from Exxon and support America and if it gets to be too costly I will adjust my lifestyle (maybe buy a Civic, since GM is going out of business anyway! Ironic huh?) not threaten the USA by trying to drive an excellent American company out of business.

Of course this is just my opinion. If it makes sense, send this to all the people you have sent the other email too. Otherwise delete it with joy!

It appears that it is no longer society running with the economic ball but the government of each country.  therefore the capitals of each country, Moscow, Washington, Kabul, Beijing, Paris, London, Riyadh, Taipei, Caracas, etc dictate who the ball gets handed off to.  I can only think, and I don't have time to give it much thought, that these capitals deal directly with the Oil producing countries and make the deals.  Unfortunately, the world now has governments vs. governments on the playing fields and the societies are just watching and complaining all the way to the gas pump and through the grocery line.  the old 80/20 rule is getting stronger and stronger each day.

oil companies are interested in pocking uranus and the enjoying every second of it and sying we did not do that; we are not making a profit. just rip off our dingle berries and be done with it;)

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