There are both up and down signals to the economy.  Grain prices are extreme high because of the low dollar, which makes the farm machinery industry good.  The oil industry is doing ok.  The general food industry always has an expanding market.  And there will be both profits and losses in real estate.  The budgets of all levels of government are continually expanding in revenue and expense, which brings improvement in economy.

 The economy and the nation now is vastly different and expanded then in 1930 and mid 20th Century, on which definitions of recession and depression are based.  During the Clinton era, there was continual predictions of economic slowdown and it never came.  

 It now is a standard thing for people to have $100,000 in the bank, usually in certificates, that being the amount of FDIC Guarantee.  And lots of people have lots more than that, with accompanying interest income, all of which brings real durability to the general economy.      

I believe that Jesus is coming soon and all these things are all last day events. But do not fear, our Creator has made a better place for all of us. The Bible has predicted all these problems. So bring it on, it's time we leave this world and go home to our eternal home in Heaven. God Bless all of you this holiday season and always.

Yes, we are heading for a recession. The powers to be have been pushing and nurturing a bubble since the internet flop, then pushing up housing prices to give us the illusion we are doing well financially. We believe that our net worth is much higher than it really is because of our house value on paper, so we spend and borrow against our paper valued illusional asset. The regulator for the bubble has been oil/gasoline prices, which has limited the stock market increase as well as keep consumers from heating up the economy too quickly. Income for the middle class has not kept up with inflation. We would have done better if the powers to be had allowed a correction from the internet bubble to fully deflate and allow the normal cycle of business and supply & demand to follow its cycle. Now how do we continue the cycle, the countries with oil have gotten used to the $90 per barrel of oil and know that we will pay it. They will only drop the price if they feel that in the long run their future is in jeapardy because of a major recession cutting consumption. China needs to prop up our economy to continue to fuel theirs. Quite a mess we have allowed ourselves to get into. Once again, it's coming.

I definitely see  a recession coming or darn near 2 qaurters down.  I think the sooner the better at this point because we can start the process to recover and get back to some normalize behavior.  Something is holding us on the cusp of the recession-not sure what it is and I'm not a professional in this field.  There are still to many delusional bulls out there that the only ones believing their retoric is them bull s****rs.  Let's get some healthy financial/investment logic out ther that is reasonable sot that folks  with wages that have stagnated can go out and purchase home within the grasp of the budget they work with and  can save some money.

Nearing a recession?!? We ARE in a recession. If we aren't in full depreesion mode by Q3 2008, that will be an act of God!!  The working class are being bled to death and the middle class are right behind them.

The financial industry hasn't disclosed just how money they've squandered- we're looking at 1TRILLION dollars. (yes, that's a T)

These parasites keep shipping our jobs overseas leaving us with minimum wage "service jobs" with NO benefits. Americans are having two work to jobs to get by. Corporate America likes that. The average person will be so busy surviving, they won't have time to find out just how bad they're being shafted.

This was all started with Ronald Reagan and Bush II is on a mission to make this country "A Tale of Two Cities." But this is what happens when you let Ferengi's  control the economics of our nation.

I think we're already there!  As a child of Depression era parents, I was told to work, save and be frugal.  My parents shopped in thrift stores, cooked from scratch and our version of "eating out" was to go to Grandma's house for dinner.  Then the 70's recession hit and I remember waiting in long lines for gas, selling clothing to resale shops, and purchasing canned foods that were dented but still edible just to make the rent payment.  I still see young people going to the show in droves, eating out, buying name brand clothing, and worst of all, tapping into precious equity just to survive.  All the while they think the economy is still safe and sound and that a recession is only something Wall Street has to worry about. Well it's time to wake up and smell your Starbucks, kids, because the Recession is right in front of you.  If you don't think those dollars add up, get a calculator.  And so as not to sound patronizing, the banks need to take responsibility for their actions as well.  Yep they've really done it to us this time, selling us the American Dream while knowing well and good that we couldn't afford that dream home as we signed on the dotted line in front of them.  Well, call me cheap, thrifty, a penny pincher, that's fine, because I'm all of them.  But at least I still have my three homes intact, and that's because I didn't listen to lenders, I listened to my Dad.

Unfortunately it does appear that as our consumer economy is slowing down it will not be long before companies have to start cutting back on production and head count.  Layoffs are the real indicator of a true recession that has the fear that previous ones over the years have had.  As the old saying goes, "it is not a recession until YOU lose YOUR job" then it comes home that the economy is in a real recession.  So far the job market is holding but with companies reporting larger losses and less profits in each quarter it is a matter of time, probable second quarter of 2008 that we will see major signs of recession.  But you say, we are going into an election year and recessions are not allowed to gain that momentum during those years.  Well, prepare yourself since this is not the usual election year coming.  All of this will give these future leaders a chance to preach what they will do to turn things around but the troubles are much deeper than previous years and the Federal Reserve will not be able to fix this one with simple rate cuts.  With the US Dollar at historical lows and inflation creeping up each of us is starting to feel the squeeze.  Groceries and gas are the prime examples of the first real budget busters that are hurting each consumer.  The spendable income for TVs, clothes, entertainment and other luxury goods is coming to a screeching halt as each family has to cut back to affort the staples.   Thow a possible or real job loss into the mix and you have a panic that recludes a real recession.  Prepare is all you can do.  One attitude is that a recession is healthy for the long term economy but it you are a person on that loses a job or house during one you see it totally different.  Only a small percentage of the population has enough money saved or can get money easily to sustain a job and income loss.  The malls may have people in them but look at how few sacks are being carried around.  People are looking but not spending and this is starting to show up at every retailer.  Even at Wal Mart employees I have spoken to this week expressed a very slow November so far with major concerns about where December sales were headed.  The sales are already starting with the highest discounts I can remember so that should tell you what retailers are fearing.  Hide and watch!

If everyone had $100 grand in the bank, as the one note above suggests is commonplace, then we would not be having this discussion as to a potential recession. Frankly, in some ways we have already entered a recession. People are either watching what they spend, or getting out from underneath giant mortages at rates that will balloon soon or have done so already. The subprime lending mess, credit crunch, and general mortgage mess brought on by the banks, large and small, has ushered in this state of the economy-- and no amount of liquidity from the Fed will suffice to quell it. Banks will ultimately have to eat their words -- literally, while whoever and whatever bails them out will eat their lunch. With oil prices at $100 per barrel, we have overlaid the early part of the 21st century to the early 1970s in economic history, and in all likelihood we are set to create a period that may not duplicate, but that will rhyme. Iraq is rhyming with Vietnam, today's oil pricing rhymes with the oil embargo of the 1970s, and the economic excesses and spending of our current time are oddly similar to the halycon and relatively serene 1950s.  Technological booms today will be slower to come because of less liquidity, but they will come nevertheless and will usher in a new economic era -- but we are two decades away from that time period. Get ready for tax and spend Democrats who believe they are doing the right thing to put the economy right, and get ready for a period of considerably slower growth. But all is not lost. Place your bets now because in 20 years, millionaires will abound. It all depends on what you do with your money right now.

The quote from Julian Robertson couple of weeks ago.  We are in for a dousy of a recession!  Our total debt (consumesr,businesses and governments) is 360% of our GDP.  In 1929 before our last depression, it was 270%.  We are in uncharted territory.  No nation on earth has prospered their way through amassing this amount of debt per GDP.  Our leader's fix for this mess is to devalue our currency so we can cheapen our exports to prosperity.  This has been tried by many of our Latin American countries with spectacular failures that resulted in uncontrolable inflation and stagnation.  I believe we are already in the beginning phase of stagflatiion like we experienced in the 70's.  Only difference is that we as a nation is the biggest debter nation on earth instead of being the biggest creditor nation.  We got our selves into this mess and we must dig our way out of it.  It will be tough going for next few years until we get our house in order.  Instead of speculating in stocks and real estate, we need to save through hard work and savings like our forefathers.

Why is it that whenever the word recession appears in a blog some religious freak spouts off about this being the end of days?  People have been saying that for over a millenium now.  In fact, there is a Russion cult holed up til Spring waiting for just that, so why don't you join them?  In the mean time, stop polluting this space so I can focus on what rational people are saying.