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Blue Nile loses its luster

Posted Oct 30 2007, 12:45 AM by Kim Peterson
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Blue Nile's stock should be on a roll, heading into the holidays with lots of momentum. Instead, the shine is gone. Still, the online jeweler got a nice smooch from Forbes last week. According to the magazine, Blue Nile is selling more engagement rings and wedding bands than Tiffany & Co. -- $197 million in bling last year compared with Tiffany's $186 million. Says Forbes:

"The retail experience just serves to sucker and intimidate the customer, especially men who often feel as out of their depth in a jewelry store as they do inside Victoria's Secret--no wonder three quarters of Blue Nile's Internet ice-buyers are guys."

Oh come on, do men really feel that awkward in a jewelry store? Anyway, that's beside the point. I want to know what's going on with this company's stock. After crossing the $100 mark three weeks ago, the share price has dropped 20% to $80. Are investors feeling jittery before Blue Nile's Nov. 6 earnings release? 

Even at its lower price, Blue Nile is trading at a huge premium -- about 92 times earnings, compared with 29 for Tiffany. The Motley Fool points out that company insiders are dumping stock like crazy. CEO Mark Vadon's holdings are down some 64% from a year ago.

It's hard to compare prices for diamonds, but for watches Blue Nile's prices don't seem to be that great. I checked out a couple and found them for cheaper on Amazon. This Seiko Coutura watch sold for $297 on Blue Nile and for $244 on Amazon. This men's Skagen watch sold for $108 on Blue Nile and $71 on Amazon.

Blue Nile's stock is overvalued and there are enough red flags to put this company in the "avoid" column.

Comments

 

I totally agree.  I am not an investor- just someone who looks for great prices.  Almost always (95%) I find the best prices on Amazon.com, no matter what the product.  Or if you wanna see it in person first, go to Walmart.

I don’t think there are any skeletons that are going to crawl out of Blue Nile’s closet on Halloween. The problem is simply that its future prospects aren’t as good as its peak stock price would suggest.

I feel the same way about eBay, Amazon, Yahoo, Google, and other successful online companies. The thing about the online companies is that they mature much faster than traditional ones. They can go from a rising star to a cash cow in several years; something it took their brick-and-mortar competitors decades to accomplish. That’s impressive, but, it also suggests the projections of future mega-growth for these companies are grossly over-inflated. When the stock price for an online company that has already made it into the mainstream still reflects expectations of tripling sales, its time to start selling the stock, not buying it.    

DID YOU CHECK THEM @ WALMART ALSO ?

-Blue Nile has always been a given as some kind of bench mark, I don't think there that hard to match, or even beat in lots of cases, especially apple to apple.

   The biggest thing for you guys to do is compare...

A diamond is not toothpaste and no two diamonds are alike.

I looked at about 17 different ones before deciding the one which was right for my love! Where the inclusions are could make a huge difference to the price of the diamond. Also i didn;t see the logic of paing upfront $14000  for something without looking at it first to see what it looked like

My husband bought my engagement diamond from Blue Nile and I have received numerous compliments from people. The way it shines and how it sprinkles in the light. I love my diamond and I know I have a great quality for the best price. Many of the jewlery stores are over price in my opinion. I was very please with the choice of selection from Blue Nile and will definitely shop there again. My sister is also considering shopping at Blue Nile for her angagement ring.

I've been investing in the stock market since 1969, and if any company that is selling at 92 times earnings should be dumped ASAP.

I was taught by some old timers that made there wealth in the market that any company selling more then 8 times earnings was high risk, and anyone buying there stock was just gambling not investing, you would get better results betting on the horses in the long run then investing in over sold companies.

This article is comparing apples and oranges. Blue Nile's business model is more similar to Amazon that it is to Tiffany, so the P/E comparison is completely irrelevant. Blue Nile's P/E should be compared with other e-commerce companies, where P/E ratios are frequently substantially higher than bricks and mortar companies. Amazon's is trading around 100 today. On the other hand, the buying experience at Blue Nile cannot compare in anyway to Amazon. Kmart and Walmart sell jewelry, but that doesn't mean I want to buy any of it. Nor would I want my husband purchasing from them for me. Blue Nile's customer experience cannot compare to Amazon in any way. They provide a unique, informative interface to become educated on purchasing diamonds and other fine jewelry in the comfort of your own home without any pressure to buy the more expensive product. Blue Nile has strong cash flow with virtually no debt. At a minimum this company is a hold! They've got a strong future ahead.

There are better online diamond stores than Blue Nile.  Go to pricescope.com and check a few out.  Photos of each diamond, along with GIA and AGS certs are available to look at online, not to mention Gemex, Brillancescope, ect.  At good old gold, you can return the diamond in 30 to 60 days for a full refund, if it's not exactly what you thought it was going to look like.  

To Napa - Of course you receive compliments on the ring purchased at Blue Nile.  Do you actually expect your friends and family to talk bad about your engagement ring?  Most jewelry stores can match or beat Blue Nile's price AND clean, check and repair your jewelry too.   The Blue Nile model for selling diamonds does not include service.  

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