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  • Don't count out private equity yet

    Posted May 16 2008, 07:14 PM by Matt Koppenheffer Rating:

    Like any other cyclical industry, the prospects for private equity look ugly as we continue into a big downturn in leveraged buyouts. Pending deals are being called off left and right and new deals are few and far between. But just like Billy Ray Cyrus found his way back into America's achy breaky heart, don't be surprised if private equity doesn't fade into the night.

    A recent Forbes article dove into the current state of affairs in the private equity industry and concluded that amidst the turmoil is opportunity -- albeit for the best and brightest in the field. As the public debt and equity markets continue to shake out, those who were swimming naked (as the Warren Buffet quote goes) are increasingly being outed. And the easy access to investor capital and debt during the buyout boom ensured that there is no shortage of swimmers donning their birthday suits right now.   Read More...

  • $9 to rent an HD movie on demand?

    Posted May 16 2008, 01:56 PM by Kim Peterson Rating:

    People will pay between $7 and $9 to rent HD movies-on-demand that come out the same day as DVDs, according to consulting firm Oliver Wyman. Right now, movies generally hit DVD first before releasing on-demand. Changing that formula would lead consumers to pay for three more movies a year, the firm said, adding $5 billion to the $50 billion spent on movies annually in the U.S.

    Even a $7 rental seems too pricey to me, unless you're talking about some jaw-droppingly amazing movie that absolutely must be watched in high-definition. Despite its slightly outrageous numbers, the report touches on a fact that movie studios have clued into for a while now: video-on-demand is smoking hot, and doesn't deserve its second-tier status.   Read More...

  • Gamestop: Signs of slowing demand

    Posted May 16 2008, 12:09 PM by Andrew Horowitz Rating:

    After the recent merger with EB Games, GameStop is by far the No. 1 specialty retailer that focuses on the new and used video game market. The company has a total of 4,400 active stores in virtually every state and in 15 countries.
    Gamestop
    Revenue has been on the rise as the hot gaming market continues to grow exponentially. The latest editions of Rock Band, Guitar Hero, Halo 3 and the blockbuster Grand Theft Auto IV are all extraordinarily popular on every gaming platform.

    But how will Gamestop continue to thrive in the face of significant competition from discount retailers such as Target and Wal-Mart? What’s more, the bulk-retailers are also selling video games in a time when   Read More...

  • Citywide Wi-Fi goes bust

    Posted May 14 2008, 02:06 PM by Kim Peterson
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    Citywide Wi-Fi networks sound like a fantastic idea. Take your laptop with you to the park or the grocery store. Drop your home Internet connection. Look up directions in your car (parked, of course). More than 150 U.S. cities planned to roll out municipal Wi-Fi at one point, but the reality is setting in: these networks don't work.

    Latest case in point: EarthLink, which is shutting down its Philadelphia Wi-Fi network in 30 days. Earthlink even tried to give away the network, but couldn't reach a deal with anyone. Too bad for EarthLink, which plunged deep into the municipal Wi-Fi business when its dial-up revenue fizzled. Shares dropped after the announcement, but have climbed nearly 3% today to $9.36.   Read More...

  • Under Armour: Jumping the Shark

    Posted May 14 2008, 10:00 AM by Andrew Horowitz Rating:

    UA Jump the SharkFormer University of Maryland football player Kevin Plank founded Under Armour as he saw the need for specialized apparel that would keep player's bodies cool during a tough game. It would be terrific if he can do the same for investors who are sweating uncontrollably as they watch the value of their shares pulverized over the past few months.  

    To be honest, I own at least a dozen Under Armour shirts in several colors and wear them often. WHY? If you have to ask you obviously have yet to try any of the Under Armour apparel products.   Read More...

  • The market rally depends on crude oil

    Posted May 13 2008, 08:56 PM by Charley Blaine
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    The chart of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is telling me the market could move higher and happily so -- if oil prices will cooperate. That is a big if.

    Fact is, the index is giving no signs of totally falling apart. It's nicely above its 50-day moving average, and it's moving in parallel with the moving average. Something that gives an investor a warm feeling inside.

    And it is forming a support level at about 1,383. That means buying   Read More...

  • Has DISH lost its mojo?

    Posted May 13 2008, 01:14 PM by Kim Peterson
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    DISH Network has lost its mojo, said Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett today. And he went as far as to wonder if the satellite provider is "the next Sprint." You know things are bad when people start calling you the next Sprint.

    Moffett's in a lather because of the company's Q1 performance. (10-Q is here). Revenue and profit were fine, matching or beating what analysts were looking for. But the subscriber numbers tell a different story. DISH added only 35,000 net new subscribers, compared with 310,000 a year earlier. Customer turnover grew to 1.68% from 1.46%. DISH blamed "worsening economic conditions," including a slowdown in new housing and an increase in customers who can't pay their bills. The company also said the competition is getting pretty intense.   Read More...

  • Is there a case for buying Citigroup?

    Posted May 13 2008, 01:09 AM by Matt Koppenheffer Rating:

    If Citigroup were a Hollywood actor, right now we'd be seeing pictures of a rumpled star donning sunglasses to cover up bloodshot eyes, and assuring the press that he made some mistakes, but that his troubles are behind him. Some press would decry a waste of talent and a bad example for the kids, while others would say that they feel sorry for him and hope he gets the help he needs.

    Citigroup the bank isn't far from that. It had the global reach, the brand, and supposedly the talent. Now its new CEO is trying to pick up the pieces and the company is finding itself the butt of jokes. Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney thinks there's little hope for a turnaround and quipped that "even Stephen Hawking could not pull this off" (kudos to Meredith for the very quotable moment). Douglas McIntyre at 24/7 Wall St. thinks that a pessimist case puts the stock at $10 by year end.   Read More...

  • New BlackBerry coming. iPhone who?

    Posted May 12 2008, 01:25 PM by Kim Peterson Rating:

    Research in Motion announced its new BlackBerry today, which the company clearly developed with Apple's iPhone in mind. The BlackBerry Bold is gorgeous, and positions RIM for a smartphone war this summer against Apple's upcoming 3G iPhone.

    RIM shares are up 7% on the news as investors applaud the first major BlackBerry release in more than a year. But Apple investors aren't too worried: shares rose 3% today on word that the HBO cable network might sell shows on iTunes.

    Here's where the two companies stand heading into the summer. The BlackBerry still commands the smartphone market, having made extensive inroads into the enterprise and becoming the de facto business phone. It has a 40% market share. But the iPhone is a strong contender, hitting a 28% market share in Q4 despite a huge flaw: incompatibility with the Microsoft Exchange e-mail server (Apple is working on a fix).   Read More...

  • Is Citigroup setting up to FAIL ?

    Posted May 12 2008, 10:27 AM by Andrew Horowitz Rating:
    The saga for Citigroup continues and rest assured that it is not going to subside anytime in the near future. In an effort to bring in capital, it is now planning hoping to sell its Japanese consumer finance unit. The move is intended to plug another hole in Citigroup's very leaky dam. In doing this, there are two results that Citigroup is likely trying to achieve:
    1. Keeping the parent alive by selling off the child, at least for the time being;
    2. Stopping any drag from the Japanese division which is reported to have over $400 billion of assets, approximately 20% of the total value of Citigroup's assets.

    The problem is that the valuing of these assets has become difficult as it is now a moving target since many of the traditional metrics have been tossed out during this historic market condition. Knowing that, it is interesting that Citigroup would  consider selling at a time when the price could be at its lowest.   Read More...

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