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  • Has Microsoft turned the corner?

    Posted Oct 23 2009, 03:24 PM by Jim Jubak
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    Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

    Jim Jubak

    When I added Microsoft (MSFT) to Jubak’s Picks on July 24, 2009 after the company announced results for its fiscal fourth quarter, I wrote “This is as bad as it gets.”

    After its Oct. 23 earnings release, the company is now saying the same thing. In the post-earnings conference call, Microsoft CFO Chris Liddell said that the fourth quarter may have been the bottom. Certainly, the company is behaving as if it were: Microsoft resumed buying back shares in the quarter that ended in September, with purchases of 1.4 billion shares.

    First quarter earnings for fiscal 2010 fell to 40 cents a share, but that beat the 32 cents expected by Wall Street. Revenue declined by 14% from the first quarter of fiscal 2009 to $12.92 billion. That big drop in revenue came because Microsoft deferred $1.47 billion in revenue from customers upgrading to Windows 7. Put that back in and revenue came to $14.39 billion, a 4% decline from the year-earlier period.

    Microsoft beat Wall Street estimates this quarter by cutting costs by more than Wall Street expected. Operating costs dropped 6.9% after the company made its first ever company-wide firings, slashed travel costs, and cut the prices it pays vendors. In the conference call, the company increased its cost-cutting target.

    The big question going forward, however, isn’t about cutting costs, but about how many copies of the new Windows 7 operating system Microsoft can sell.   Read More...

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  • McDonald’s beats the Street

    Posted Oct 22 2009, 01:43 PM by Jim Jubak
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    Now that’s the kind of quarter investors own McDonald’s (MCD) for.

    Earnings for the third quarter, reported before the market open on Oct. 22, climbed to $1.15 a share from $1.05 in the third quarter of 2008. That was above Wall Street expectations of $1.11 a share. (This puts McDonald’s among the 80% of so of Standard & Poor’s 500 stocks that have beat Wall Street estimates so far this quarter. For more on that, see this Oct. 20 post.)

    Revenue fell 3.5% to $6.05 billion. That was below analyst projections of $6.1 billion. But on a constant currency basis, revenue was up 2% from the third quarter of 2008   Read More...

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  • What if Apple misses earnings?

    Posted Oct 19 2009, 03:44 AM by Douglas McIntyre
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    Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

    Wall Street believes that Apple (AAPL) will make $1.42 a share for the quarter that just ended on $9.2 billion in revenue. Both figures would be well over 10% higher than a year ago. 

    Apple would have to sell about of 2.9 million Macs, 10.5 million iPods and 6.9 million iPhones to hit those numbers.

    Fulfilling those expectations will be a tall order. iPod sales dropped 7% in the June quarter. Mac sales were only up 4% to 2.6 million, and iPhone sales reached 5.2 million.

    Wall Street's iPhone sales estimates may be too conservative. The handset has been a hit for AT&T (T), especially after the introduction of the 3GS model, and there is some evidence that sales in Europe are rising quickly due to price cuts in the UK, Germany, and France.   Read More...

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  • The tragedy of Krispy Kreme

    Posted Oct 12 2009, 10:20 AM by Minyanville
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    This article is written by Minyanville's Carol Kopp

    There’s a truism among investors that you should invest in what you know, understand, and like. It’s a commonsense strategy: You spot something new. It’s special. It’s useful or innovative. It’s cool and affordable. Let me buy some of that!

    The response to that can be summed up in just two words: Krispy Kreme (KKD).

    Krispy Kreme had been a popular doughnut chain in the South since 1937, but remained unknown to the rest of us until about 1996. That’s when the first Krispy Kreme popped up in New York City, on West 23rd Street.

    Believe it or not, the town went nuts.   Read More...

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  • Six reasons to keep the faith in GE

    Posted Oct 08 2009, 10:46 AM by Minyanville
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    This article is written by Minyanville's Glenn Curtis

    Shares of General Electric (GE) are trading at a fraction of what they were just a few short years ago. However, they're well off their lows, and there are those that say the good times will soon roll again.

    So what’s the skinny? And does it make sense to belly up before the earnings?

    Here are some of my thoughts:

    For more on today's earnings, see Upgrades & Downgrades.

    1. Here's the aerial view: If someone is bullish on the future opportunities this great country has, General Electric is a clear and logical pick. Sure -- that's simplistic, but at the same, it's true. More people with coin in their pocket equals more want for appliances, engines, light bulbs, demand for entertainment, and all those good things GE offers up.

    2. Now, is the road going to be full of potholes? I think so. I think we're going to see fits and starts and I’m skeptical about the near-term outlook for the macro economy, which I’ve said numerous times in recent months. But this economy will be righted, and things will turn around, make no mistake. And when they do, my gut tells me that GE’s shares will soar like Sputnik and there will be legions of people out there kicking themselves and wondering why they didn’t belly up to it when they had the opportunity.   Read More...

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  • Dollar bears overstaying welcome

    Posted Sep 21 2009, 10:25 AM by Minyanville
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    This article is written by Minyanville's Terry Woo

    Dollar bears overstaying their welcome?

    Bearish bets against the US dollar are becoming more and more crowded, so says Mark Gongloff of the Wall Street Journal. There are a number of reasons for the sentiment, among them, a burgeoning US budget deficit.

    But Gongloff warns that these bets could sour quickly, especially if a US economic recovery comes faster than expected.

    A full recovery of the US consumer seems unlikely, but the country merely has to outperform its foreign competitors. For more on the US economy, see Mike Shedlock’s Evaluating the Odds of a Double-Dip Recession.

    From the Bull Pen: If you believe that fears of dollar weakness are overdone, the 20+ year treasury bond ETF (TLT) is one vehicle to consider. Sell stops can be set around $95 to $94 depending on your risk profile.   Read More...

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  • Aeropostale flies higher

    Posted Aug 24 2009, 06:50 AM by Minyanville
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    This article was written by Minyanville's Kristin Graham

    The recent rally in the retail sector has turned me quite bearish on retail stocks. Retailers struggling to survive have been posting extraordinary gains over the past few months -- gains that I don’t think are sustainable, given the overall retail and consumer-spending outlook. However, Aeropostale (ARO) seems to be an anomaly. While the teen retailer has, like many of its peers, skyrocketed 145% so far this year, its stock performance is actually aligned with its operational performance.

    At a time when competitors are posting double-digit sales declines, Aeropostale is growing its top line by double-digit figures. For the second quarter, sales rose 20% and comps rose 12%. And while most retailers are contracting margins from massive promotional activity, Aeropostale actually grew its operating margin by 480 basis points.

    Bing: Retail Sector 

    The stellar performance is, of course, partly due to the “trading down” shift that's taking place among consumers right now. However, I do think that management has done a great job of studying and understanding its customer. The ability to grow a gross margin during a recession is impressive and it displays the company’s ability to offer the right clothes at the right price.

    If you have followed my past retail articles, you’re probably wondering why I’m praising a company that's thriving on its ability to offer discount prices -- I’ve criticized many retailers in the past for implementing heavy promotional activity to drive sales during the downturn.   Read More...

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  • Cisco's stock computes

    Posted Aug 04 2009, 07:33 AM by Minyanville
    Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

    Public domain releaseThis article was written by Minyanville's Glenn Curtis

    Back around the year 2000, California-based Cisco Systems (CSCO) was a rock star, and as such, was pretty much a must-own for retail and institutional shareholders.

    These days, it doesn’t seem to enjoy quite the same reputation, and the groupies have, for the most part, moved on. But with the stock having bounced off its lows and the company’s fourth-quarter earnings just around the corner (August 5), now’s the time to “belly up to the bar” (to steal a phrase from our fearless leader, Professor Toddo).

    Here’s what makes me think the stock computes (sorry, couldn’t resist):

    1. I’m not a momentum guy by any stretch of the imagination, but if the stock manages to make a new high, the shares could roll to the mid or upper $20s.   Read More...

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  • Can earnings sustain the rally?

    Posted Jul 27 2009, 09:26 AM by Anthony Mirhaydari
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    Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

    Better-than-expected second quarter earnings have been the big driver of the recent rally. According to the latest data, 77% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported an earnings beat. The blended S&P 500 earnings growth rate, combining both companies that have already report and those that have yet to report, now stands at -31.7%. That's up from a -35.2% reading on July 1. Revenue growth, however, has been lackluster.

    What has been so shocking for the bears is that most of the increase has been driven by the consumer discretionary and financial sectors. Stocks in both of these sectors were among the most heavily shorted at the end of June. As a result, frantic short covering has helped propel the likes of swimming pool purveyor SCP Pool Corp. (POOL) to new highs. The stock had nearly 22% of its open float sold short earlier this month. Since July 7, POOL is up 42%.

    Here's some food for thought. If the final percentage of S&P 500 components beating their estimates remains near the current level, it will be the highest since Thomson Reuters started tracking the data back in 1994. The previous record was 73% set in first quarter of 2004. A chart of that period looks eerily similar today's. After a final touch of bear market lows in March of 2003, stocks blasted higher into the beginning of 2004, meandered down in a sideways channel for eight months, then blasted higher into the 2007 top.   Read More...

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  • 9,000 a long way from 14,000

    Posted Jul 24 2009, 03:31 AM by Douglas McIntyre
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    Money Blog: Top Stocks Blog - MSN Money

    The media made a big deal of the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above 9,000 for the first time in nearly eight months. The index was under 6,550 in early March, so the advance has been 38% since then, but the index is still well below the 14,000 mark hit in October 2007.

    The Dow would have to rise 54% to get back to that point. That is an extraordinarily depressing figure given how far the market has already come and how hard it will be for it to rise to that number in what is still a harsh economic environment.

    There are obviously a number of good reasons for the run-up, but there are an equal number of reasons that it has gone too far. Housing has begun to make what could only be called a most modest recovery, or, at least it has created a credible mirage.   Read More...

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