Are the media being drama queens?
Posted
Nov 05 2008, 08:17 AM
by
Karen Datko
Rating:
This guest post comes from Abigail Perry at I Pick Up Pennies.
About a week ago, my husband and I were notified that our credit card issuer had increased our spending limit. In fact, none of our credit cards are cutting our limits, even in this economy.
Yet all I read or hear about is a series of lamentations. Foreclosures. Stocks plummeting. Card companies slashing limits and raising rates.
Instead of focusing on the question "How bad is it?" perhaps we should be asking, "How many Americans will actually be affected? And for how long?"
I haven't seen much quantifying of just what kind of effect the economic downturn is having, and on which sectors of the population. Certainly, there are some major changes going on, as Wal-Mart's sales numbers have indicated.
Yet there are small rays of hope out there -- they're just not getting much coverage.
Hard times -- but how hard?
For example, gasoline is under $3 a gallon. But falling gas prices aren't as big a story as rising gas prices. It's not that cheaper gas is enough to compensate for the hard times ahead. But guess what? We already had the good times.
Like spoiled children, we Americans had our dessert first and now we're aghast (and petulant) that we have to eat our vegetables, too. A fair number are even trying to get out of it (think "banking/mortgage bailouts"), because all that overindulgence gave them tummy aches and they really shouldn't have to suffer anything more.
I'm not trying to minimize suffering. I'm not trying to say it's all lollipops and rainbows. Things are bleak. Times will be tough. Yet if you listen to most news sources, you'd think we're looking at at least a half-decade of strife and uncertainty.
That's why I was honestly quite startled to find out that the whole thing could be over by next June. Assuming that a normal recession lasts 18 months, and that this one started in January, we're about eight months away from a turnaround.
Be cautiously optimistic
Sure, it could last longer. But after years and years of market highs and financial self-indulgence, I think we can all weather a year and a half of tough times.
I understand why the media do what they do. Editors and publishers go with what sells, and right now what sells is doom and gloom. But that's because of our own attention spans. Most readers wouldn't click through on a story if the summary were: "Mildly distressing times ahead, but not for too long and not as bad as the Great Depression."
But "1 in 6 homeowners 'underwater'"? Now that's a headline that gets our attention. Click!
The other problem is that journalists, like doctors with critically ill patients, have to prepare us for the worst-case scenario. Better to be too pessimistic than too optimistic. If you do better than expected, it can be called a miracle. (Or good doctoring.) But if you do worse, the family will get more emotional pain and suffering. (Or a good lawyer.)
We're not all underwater
What does it all mean? It means that things really stink in the short term. And since the future is uncertain, it's easy for us to panic, especially because we hear nothing but woe.
Yet the situation may not be as horrifying as news coverage would have you believe. For starters, there's no Dust Bowl. Banks are being taken care of -- mostly by other banks, which I don't love, but it sure beats having lending institutions call it quits.
Although it's harder to get a mortgage these days, it's still possible. People in danger of being foreclosed on may be getting government help or settlements from lenders, whether or not we believe they deserve it.
In other words, while tough times lie ahead, we don't need to fall into an everlasting pit of despair. We can get through this. Let's try focusing on that, instead of only on those underwater homeowners.
Other articles of interest at I Pick Up Pennies:
Who'd have thought being poor was the way to go? How I relax (frugally) in this economy
Crying in a supermarket
