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Why a Roth 401(k) may be bad for your wealth

Posted Jul 09 2008, 07:33 AM by Karen Datko
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This post comes from partner blog The Dough Roller.

Let's get right to the point: Saving for retirement in a Roth 401(k) likely will leave you with less money in retirement than if you had invested in a traditional 401(k).

There are some exceptions to this rule. For example, a Roth 401(k) may be the right choice if you make more than $1 million a year or if you make so little that you pay no income tax or very little income tax. But for the majority of us, the Roth 401(k) is better left alone. Here's why.

Roth 401(k) basics

A Roth 401(k) is a retirement plan set up by employers that allows employees to contribute to their retirement. Unlike a traditional 401(k), which is tax-deferred, money invested in a 401(k) Roth account is included in an employee's taxable income. For example, if an employee is in the 25% federal tax bracket and pays 5% in state income tax, he or she would have to make $14,285 in gross income to invest $10,000 in a Roth 401(k).

Here's the math: $14,285 x 30% = $4,285 in taxes. $14,285 - $4,285 = $10,000.

The benefit of a Roth 401(k) is that your investments grow tax-free. If, by retirement, that $10,000 has grown to $50,000, you pay no tax on the $40,000 gain. With a traditional 401(k), the initial investment is excluded from your taxable income, but you do pay taxes as you make withdraws from the account.

Why contributing to a Roth 401(k) may be a mistake

Determining whether a Roth 401(k) or traditional 401(k) is best requires a bit of guesswork. Traditional analysis asks whether your tax rate when you contribute to the Roth 401(k) will be different from the rate you have when you make withdrawals from the retirement account. If your tax rate will be the same, the argument goes, it makes no difference whether you invest in a traditional or Roth 401(k). A tax rate that is higher when you make contributions than when you take withdrawals favors a traditional 401(k), while a tax rate that is lower favors a Roth.

The problem with this analysis is that it glosses over the difference between the marginal tax rate and the effective tax rate. The federal tax rate is progressive, meaning that the tax rate increases as your income increases. For example, here are the 2008 federal tax brackets as released by the IRS:

2008 Tax Brackets

Tax Rate   Single                       Married Filing Jointly

10%            Not over $8,025        Not over $16,050

15%            $8,025 - $32,550        $16,050 - $65,100

25%            $32,550 - $78,850      $65,100 - $131,450

28%            $78,850 - $164,550    $131,450 - $200,300

33%            $164,550 - $357,700  $200,300 - $357,700

35%            Over $357,700           Over $357,700

As you can see, the tax rate increases as an individual or couple's income increases.

The marginal tax rate is the highest rate that people pay based on their income level. For those with taxable income of more than $357,700, the marginal rate is 35%. In contrast, the effective rate is the average income tax rate paid. Somebody with taxable income of $357,701, for example, pays 35% income tax only on the last $1. An individual would pay 33% for taxable income over $164,550, 28% for the portion of taxable income over $78,859, and so on. In the end, the effective tax rate would be the total tax paid divided by gross income, which would come out to a lot less than the marginal rate of 35%.

The key point for our purposes is that contributions to a traditional 401(k) reduce your tax liability at the marginal rate, not the effective rate. In contrast, withdrawals from a traditional 401(k) will be taxed, along with other retirement income, at your effective rate. So unless you expect your current marginal tax rate to equal or exceed your effective tax rate at retirement, the Roth 401(k) is not the best choice.

If you'd like to read a detailed analysis of the Roth 401(k), check out "Thinking about a Roth 401(k)? Think again."

Wise choice?

Is a Roth 401(k) the right choice for anybody? Sure.

For those making in excess of $1 million, their effective tax rate and marginal tax rate begin to converge. Furthermore, they are likely to amass sufficient wealth such that their retirement income could exceed their current income, which could favor a Roth 401(k). Also, if you live in a state that doesn't have an income tax, but expect to move to a state that does during retirement, the Roth 401(k) may be the better choice. And a teenager who doesn't earn enough to pay taxes, but wants to save for retirement, would be better off choosing a Roth account.

Choosing the right investment vehicle is not a one-size-fits-all proposition. And it should be noted that you can invest in both a Roth and traditional 401(k). But for most, sound retirement planning suggests that we pass on the Roth 401(k).

Other articles of interest from The Dough Roller:

 

11 online retirement calculators

Slow-motion retirement: A new way to look at the rest of your life

How to buy partial shares of Berkshire Hathaway with ShareBuilder

Comments

 

I agree with other comments! Given that we know what taxes are today and that we don't know what they will be 20 years from now, I believe it is better to pay the tax today than pay a higher tax tomorrow.  For one thing, taxes are currently at historicall lows and are more likely to go up than down.  Plus, if I have done a good job at saving for my retirement, I will be a multi-millionaire when it comes time to pull out the money.  In other words, I will be one of those "rich" people the Democrats want to tax to oblivion.  To pay 15% tax now or 35% tax later?  You decide.

let's boil this down to just two things:  deferral and taxes dollars paid now or later.  

first, deferral.  a tax dollar paid later is always better than a tax dollar paid now.  so chalk that one up for the traditional ira in all cases.

second, tax dollars actually paid.  contrary to what the idiot said in the article, it is not a choice of marginal tax rates now vs effective tax rates later.  that is really fuzzy math.  it is marginal tax rates now vs marginal tax rates later.  this one is simple but also includes looking into your crystal ball. if you expect your marginal tax rate for your 401k deductions to be greater than your marginal tax rates for your 401k withdrawls than the traditional 401k is a better bet. simple as that.

OK This guy has not invested in ROTH IRA and has never learned the rules. For ONE, I was told by AG Edwards investment broker that $150,000 was the maximum you can earn to maintain a ROTH. TWO, you do NOT get charged any taxes on a ROTH withdrawal after age 59 1/2. Like a savings account withdrawal. Roth IRA's are a great investment for anyones future except for this idiot who wrote this blog!!!!

This article is neither accurate nor wise.  The withdrawals from a traditional 401k are taxed at your marginal not effective rates.  The article also never mentioned that age is the most determining factor.  The younger you are the more beneficial a Roth is to a traditional 401k or IRA since the growth is far greater on a young person than an older and not taxed at all ever.  People should focus on SAVE, SAVE, SAVE WHETHER A ROTH OR TRADITIONAL AND FORGET THIS WRITER- HE NEITHER UNDERSTANDS TAXES NOR HUMAN NATURE NOR FINANCIAL PRINCIPLES.  tHE DOUGH ROLLER IS FULL OF DOUGH.

The author’s analysis is WAY too biased against the Roth 401(k).  A perfect segment of our society that SHOULD consider investing in the Roth are those in the early part of their career.  They are probably in the lowest tax brackets of their life, including retirement; AND these particular contributions will multiply themselves more than funds contributed later in life, making a higher proportion of their investment earnings tax-free when withdrawn during retirement.

Ideally, one will want to have two pools of funds during retirement – taxable funds from traditional 401(k)s and tax-free funds from Roth 401(k)s.  During each year of retirement, the retiree will pull FIRST from the taxable funds as they work their way up through the lower tax brackets, maybe capping out at the 15% or 25% tax bracket.  Then, and especially in years when they need higher income, they would pull from the tax-free funds, but will avoid the higher 33% and 35% brackets.  As the person goes through retirement with some years of high income, let’s say for travel; and some years with low income, lets say to stay at home with grandkids; they would keep their taxes low throughout retirement, not allowing the timing of their income to put them in the higher tax brackets.  This will lower incomes tax paid during the person's lifetime.

The best time to invest for that tax-free pool of income is in the early years of their career, by investing in their Roth 401(k).

This article is extremely misleading.  Even if a person in the 25% tax bracket while working ends up in a lower bracket while retired Roth is still better.  My $10,000 Roth investment could easily grow to $40,000 by the time I retire.  I'd rather pay 25% tax now on $10,000 when I can afford it than 15% on $40,000 when I'm retired.  Remember, the growth in a Roth is NEVER taxed.  Therefore, the overall amount of money going to the government will usually be less with a Roth than a 401(k).

Tax rates could be 55%-80% in the future, easy.  Something to consider.  A hybrid approach is the best way to go.  Max out the company match in your regular 401k, then go to a Roth.  If your company doesn't have a Roth 401k, then open one on Sharebuilder.com.

Max out your Roth before you make too much money. Let's say you put 30,000 in a Roth after 6 years of working and don't put another penny in. Your estimated return, compounded at 10%, after year 40, is well over a million dollars. So you have more than a million dollars in tax free money. VS a traditional IRA where you would have to pay taxes on that million dollars. Although you don't pay taxes when you put the money in with a traditional IRA, I don't think anyone could argue that they would trade the taxes saved on a million vs. 30,000. There is a reason why wealthy people are not able to contribute to a Roth, it gives the little guys an edge. Articles like this really need to be careful because inexperienced investors might actually read them.

Future After-Tax Value of a Traditional 401(k) = Principal * (1+interest rate)^n periods * (1-tax rate).

Future After-Tax Value of a Roth 401(k) = Principal * (1-tax rate) * (1+interest rate)^n periods.

They are mathematically equivalent IF the tax rate is equivalent.  Now, the Roth 401(k) is advantageous because it allows you to invest more tax advantaged dollars. In other words, the initial Principal is higher.  $15,000 in a traditional 401(k) is equal to $15,000/(1-tax rate) in a Roth 401(k).  For example, if your marginal tax rate is 0.28, then you can effectively shelter $20,833.33 in pre-tax money in a Roth 401(k)!  An appropriate economic comparison between maxing out the two flavors of the 401(k) should include what you do with the $5,833.33 (pre-tax) in your pocket.

Its all a matter of opinion and guess.  The first thing is to contribute to a ROTH or Traditional 401(k).  Like Nike says, Just Do It.  Debate the finer points of which is better later.  

Fully fund it and split the difference.  Half contribute in the pretax portion of your 401(k) and put the other half into the ROTH after tax component of your employers 401(k).  That way you can have some flexibility and tax control options when you retire.  Regardless of what the tax structure will be when you retire you should be investing as much as you can into your retirement plan.  www.eventiumfs.com

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