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Blogger's rant: Why the economic future looks so grim

Posted Mar 26 2008, 08:01 PM by Karen Datko
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Fed up with the government's bailout du jour? You'll find a kindred spirit in Randall at Credit Withdrawal. He's been on an extended rant lately about the causes of economic gloom and the supposed solutions to fix them. His starship goes where a lot of other personal-finance bloggers hesitate to travel.

Bailout plans provoke this reaction: "Rewarding stupidity isn't going to make anyone learn from their mistakes. America is the land of opportunity, but that opportunity also includes the opportunity to fail."

Why does the government want us to blow our tax rebate money on stuff? He writes: "If everyone were to spend their checks only on debt reduction, the only 'stimulus' that would happen would be for the bankers and lenders, and they already have lots of money coming to them from the Fed in the form of reduced prime rates and now direct loans to nonbanking businesses."

Randall doesn't stop there. He foretells the future -- it ain't pretty -- and proposes what regulars folks should do, just in case his predictions are spot on.

Now is the time to pay off debt, he writes. Why? "I believe the next major bubble to burst is going to be the credit card debt bubble. With the three main squeezes of household money increasing (food, housing and credit bills) the number of people pushed from 'just hanging on' to 'free-falling' is going to rise dramatically," he writes.

Also, create an emergency fund, increase income and adopt a more frugal lifestyle. He adds that "there's no time like the present to get ready for the storm. If we're lucky, it'll be like a short thunderstorm, washing away overpriced houses and imaginary profits from over-inflated businesses, and then back to normal. If not, the more prepared for the long storm, the better."

Comments

 

Wow! Thanks for all the article coverage.

I'm just so fed up with the Fed (pun intended) that I had to let it out.

Hope if the worse does come around, these might help everyone get ready.

"If everyone were to spend their checks only on debt reduction, the only 'stimulus' that would happen would be for the bankers and lenders, and they already have lots of money coming to them from the Fed in the form of reduced prime rates..."

Although I understand the impetus for this comment, it's not entirely accurate.  I'm a community banker so I have some "on the ground experience with this.  I have two points:  

1.  Yes, prime rate has gone down however that is a SHORT TERM borrowing rate and each time prime rate goes down, banks are deluged with phone calls from their commercial customers who want to refinance their LONG TERM fixed rate debt.  Given that deposit accounts typically reprice more slowly (think about locked in CD rates) than loans, this squeezes the bank's net interest margin which leads to a decrease in income.  Competition in the banking industry is vicious and we're all cutting each other's throats to get loans.

2.  Given the delinquency rates in consumer unsecured portfolios, I know my bank would cheer if all of our credit card clients applied their rebate to their debt.   I missed the part where it was somehow wrong of banks to want people to repay their unsecured debts.

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