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Is home equity falling? 'Maybe, maybe not'

Posted Mar 06 2008, 11:32 AM by Karen Datko
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Here are some stunning facts: The total value of homes owned in the U.S. has increased from $834 billion to $5.1 trillion, in inflation-adjusted dollars, since 1952. In the same time, home equity -- the portion people have paid off -- has increased from $672 billion to more than $2.5 trillion.

That sounds like great news. But it also means the average equity people have in their homes dropped from 80% of the home's value in those Howdy Doody days to a record low of 50.4%.

This information comes from Michael Rizzo, senior economist at the American Institute for Economic Research. "In short, the value of homes has increased greatly since 1952, but mortgage debt has increased even more," Rizzo writes at the institute's Web site.

So is this good news or bad news? Well, it all depends. In a post at his personal blog, The Unbroken Window, Rizzo asks, "Is home equity falling?" and answers, "Maybe, maybe not."

We contacted Rizzo with a couple of questions, and here's what he had to say: "I just wanted to point out that 60 years ago, homeowners (in aggregate) owned a large percentage of a small pie and while homeowners' share of the pie today is much smaller (leverage making up nearly half of housing values), the pie is substantially larger. Would you rather own 80% of $800 or so billion or 50% of $5 trillion? The point is to get people thinking."

Why the big dollar increases since 1952? The value of housing has gone up, the population is growing, and more of those people own houses, Rizzo writes in the AIER post.

Why is the equity percentage at a record low? "This largely reflects increased mortgage borrowing by homeowners, who have taken on larger debt to buy their homes and increasingly spent down their equity via home-equity loans," Rizzo writes.

Not everyone has mortgage debt. In fact, a third of homeowners own their homes free and clear. However, one in 10 owe more on their homes than the houses are worth, Rizzo says. 

Comments

 

There is less percentage of equity in homes today because banks ENCOURAGED people to take out equity loans or buy houses with NOTHING DOWN.  So many people are not building equity in their homes, they are instead, in an odd way, RENTING their homes because they do not make payment sufficent to build equity.  It's foolish on the part of the home owners.  Equity in a house is pretty stable, continues to grow in value, whereas the new car, clothing, eating out or kids' toys purchased with the home equity loan are almost WORTHLESS  immediately when they are  purchased.   I RESENT THE GOVERNMENT TRYING TO BAIL OUT HOMEOWNERS SO STUPID THAT THEY TOOK MORTGAGES THEY COULD NOT REPAY, TOOK OUT ARMS, AND BORROWED AGAINSAT  THEIR EQUITY.  Let them lose their houses and someone else will buy the property who can pay for it.

The point is, ladies and gentleman, that greed -- for lack of a better word -- is good.

Greed is right. Greed works.

Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.

Greed, in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind.

And greed -- you mark my words -- will not only save home equity, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA.

This news reflects the macroeconomic shift of the American culture and economy. In 1952, the US was a manufacturing, saving and lending economy. We produced goods, there was significant savings, and we loaned money to other countries.

Contrast that with today: we have enormous personal and public debt  (witness budgetary and trade deficits), we have exported manufacturing to other countries (due to burden of over-regulation and taxation, as well as inflated labor costs) and we borrow huge sums of money from other countries (China alone holds trillions of dollars in US Treasuries). Thus, we are a consuming, spending and borrowing economy.

The dollar, an increasingly worthless fiat currency, has been sliding in value for years - that decline is accelerating. The piper must be paid. That payment will result in a significantly decreased standard of living in the US and markedly increased poverty. Naturally, our craven, worthless politicians, who have helped create this looming disaster, will attempt to solve serious budgetary shortfall, such as the ever-enlarging segment of society living on the public dole, by seizing wealth. Those who have saved, invested and been responsible, will find themselves stripped of much of their money tp satisfy the demand that we serve "the public good".

Those that think this doomsday bombast, feel free to trust our national political parties to solve this mess. Democrats and Republicans have abdicated responsibility. The only race is which party promises to give more to the expanding group which wants, no, demands more services for nothing. Those who think a leftist like Barack Obama offers any solution are welcome to this delusion. Hillary Clinton, a dangerous meglomaniac with imperious pretentions, would happily imprison those who disagree with her views. George W. Bush sold out on any claim to conservatism with heinously increased spending and no plan for solvency.

The era of statesmanship is dead. Thos who can will be investing in other economies and sending as much of their wealth elsewhere to protect it. The sky IS falling.

what a moronic message. instead of "own" it should be "owe".  what you rather owe ?$160 bil or $2.5 tril??  

The lending institutions, and the borrowers who over-extended themselves, are now paying the price of their short-sightedness. Unfortunately, those of us who resisted the temptation to buy more house, or get a better 'deal' on our mortgage, are also paying. As much as I agree that people were foolish to get in over their heads, the responsibility is mostly on the lenders, they definitely should have known better. Yup, greed is evil.

~~is the end of the world as we know it...and I feel fine. (REM)

The time has arrived to pay the piper.  Years of borrow and spend by people has left us with nothing but debt.  Our industries are no more - they and their equipment to produce things, have been sent to foreign lands.  We can not produce things to get out from under.  We are now dependent on all those foreign countries that now conveniently forget about us and our saving their economies from ruin.  We're at the start of a major Depression unlike anything ever experienced.  Maybe it will cause the people of our society to go back to the timeless values given up a long time ago.  Get ready for the downhill ride of your life.

Well, though I like the fact that people are involved in this discussion, I don't think the "You chose wrong, therefor you die" approach is the best. The reason all of this is sliding down hill is because people are being punished and are losing their homes. The main problem is because there ISN'T someone right behind them that can afford it. Yes, these people are stupid (or made a mistake, or didn't know), but when you have a lot of something with no takers - you have a lower value. YOU may be able to pay your bills, but if 15 of your neighbors can't, you will suffer too. Your house becomes less of a value, which then means that you don't have as much to put down if you move (because maybe your job got cut or your pay is less or you transfered), thus you are now part of the people you look down on. Don't for one second think that just because you have "equity" or you have paid your bills that you are imune to what is going on. The solution comes from EVERYONE, not just the people who made it happen.

It's really quite simple:

Unlike during the 1950's, people want and feel entitled to get the best of everything, regardless of their income...  We've developed this "keeping up with the Joneses" attitude.  Big houses, luxury cars, big screen TVs, etc.  In the 1950's, people didn't lease or buy cars every 3-5 years, and they were content to live in smaller homes - thus saving more and using less of their home's equity.

I tell my adult kids to save and wait for their "needs and wants" instead of using credit, but I was thinking, they probably look at what their peers are doing and say "why does mama ask me to do differently". I agree with  "anonymous"!! But

the property boom of late 2003, 2004 & part of 2005 is what has really took us down.

I owned a tiny vacant lot on the beach, taxed at 80k and yearly taxes of $1000 in 2003, I sold it in 2004 as I saw property prices rising and property Taxes soaring and

knew I could not afford the taxes. A guy bought it for 920k and his yearly taxes went to $11,500 as did all the other lots in the neighborhood. Our county(very small)

sold over 300 properties a month~~now we are back to 30 to 40 a month. Since 2006, the mad rush to buy here is long gone but....many many places on the market

for sale, still at the excilerated prices. Florida county govenments quickly took out huge loans for projects they could not afford based on the new tax income. The state

has not been able to lower the property taxes back to normal  because of the county and states recent obligations (building new roads, new facilities for all the new residents? and paying for the loans). So the buyers who did not get to re-sell Boom

Properties are stuck with the properties and paying taxes and insurances they can

hardly? afford. Those that bought homes for their families to live in should have known the bottom line before they leaped and those (realtors or whomever) that secured and passed out loans~Shame Shame on you! Of course this all has had a

huge impact on the tourists as I can see that not as many are willing to pay the

increases for rentals. I believe that the Boom turned out to be a pyramid deal that has injured all of our lifestyles.

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