What do the Economists forecast as to how long the next recession may last?  What effect will a pullout from IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN have on our Economy?  Will the price of Crude Oil go down considerably?

Bob

I think that their forescasts for recessionwould be all over the lot. My greater personal concern (68, retired and haven't needed to tap IRA's yet) is inflation. I do believe it's coming and I do believe it will be rather severe and tending to hang on for a good while.

Like the old saying goes, opinions are like noses, everyone has one

most of my IRA is in Fidelity BaLnced FBALX, which is a Morningstar five star fund with a good manager.  I don't know whether to leave it there, or to check out smething that woould be more defensive if inflatio ramps up.

what is called recession and what is the real defination of it?

if recession is related to the economy then how would we over turn this issue?  Economist can  address (valuable thought and recommandation)  this matter which would help everyone of our society. Is n't it?

Everyone acts like everything is going to alright. Even if we have recession. Well I think something really bad is on the horizon. Dollar dropping is bad sign. All the debt. Inflation. Your article should be how to survive next Great Depression.

A pull-out from Iraq and Afghanistan would have mixed economic results.  

The military is a major economic employer both for those who serve and the more than equal number of private employees who support them in everything from security contractors (Blackwater and many others), materials handlers (civilian cooks, suppliers, transport specialists, etc...) and consultants (not every civil project in the recovery is staffed by our armed forces).  Additionally, military contracts employ hundreds of thousands on the home front.  War is big business.

Pulling our troops would return many to civilian jobs that may not have been kept waiting for them at home.  What transferable skills might soldiers have?  Certainly high-tech and law enforcement, but the strong work ethic and goal orientation also created the "greatest generation" after WWII.  Countering that is the estimated 60% of our active duty personnell serving there who will bring home some PTSD symptoms that do not go away with a discharge.  Some will need our support for years.  And successful medical treatments mean many injured soldiers may become disabled veterans.

Downsizing our military would shift jobs causing some short-term unemployment for government contract suppliers, return some military to the civilian labor pool and affect those economic areas that support the war effort.

Supplies of crude will depend on what happens to those supply lines at the time of the eventual return of our troops.  If supply is restricted or fails to keep up with increasing demand at home we may be in trouble.

Will the cost of this war eventually come home with the troops?  Will the Defense Department reduce its budget (our taxes) and allow those funds to create private-sector jobs to replace a down-sized military?  That money will be spent either to pay off our war-time debt to other nations or it will create jobs, either in government or civilian life.  

A short-term pullout would almost certainly raise the price of crude.  But I have more questions about the economic impact of this war than just the price at my gas pump and whether to lower my thermostat this winter.

A way to get ready for a potential recession is to clean out unwanted stuff! Have a yard  sale and part with everything you don't need, clothes which don't fit, outgrown toys, extra furniture.  Use the procedes to pay down credit card debt (store those cards in water in the freezer so you have to thaw them before use!) or deposit the profits to emergency fund.  It doesn't matter what you paid (often wasted) to buy the things.  What matters is what you can get for them, THAT IS THEIR ACTUAL VALUE.  In the case of fancy cars, exercise equipment and desinger clothing, this can be a real eye opener as to what kind of "investments" these things are.  STOP BUYING!  START SAVING!  DO IT NOW!  Get peace of mind.  

what makes a recession a depression?

The Federal Government has been artificially stimulating the US economy since the dot com bust by lowering the discount rate.  Just like Japan in the early 1990s the Fed can lower the rate to 0.0% and there will be no takers.  If you consider the huge trade and budget deficits, the true inflation rate caused by huge amounts of liquidity placed in the system by the Fed (the declining dollar), the interest payment on our national debt, which will only get worse, and the post war baby boomers starting to retire, leaves the US economy with only one way to go and that is down.  It is time to pay for our many many sins.  It may be to late to prepare for the recession if you have not already started.  If you want a time frame look to the end of 2008 or before because the Bejing Olympics and the US election will be over.  No matter who becomes president the train cannot be stopped.  The next president will be a one termer due to the US fiscal policy during the last 8 years.

This article is really great if you are in 3rd grader.  While there is a possibility that some will lose jobs in a recession, good financial advice is to ALWAYS have an emergency fund.  Limiting 401K contributions is only prudent if you have not prepared an adequate emergency fund.  Many that lose jobs would never have an opportunity to get that information beforehand since only the levels above them are in the know - particularly if your job is management and there are very few above you.  

Typical management strategy is not to let stuff like that leak out on the grapevine.  C'mon...... !!  

You are feeding the sky is falling mentality, but worst yet your article gives very little offensive strategy on what someone might do to combat an obvious slowdown  - what about (to name just a couple) exploring other fields that are more recession-proof or considering a more humble existence getting educated for the long term?

The main reason we have recessions is because we allow our government to print dollars any time they want to spend. We can fix our economy very easy, simply stop the printing of dollars. This would give our economy stability and it would actually allow your wealth to grow instead on decrease as time goes on.I have been in favor of a gold back dollar ever since they took us off the gold standard.I often wonder if my fellow americans are sleeping. Do you realize what we are allowing them to do to us? Wake up lets take control of our lives again.