Search results matching tag 'Intel'

What's ahead for Intel

InvestorPlace — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 01:06:00 GMT

This article is by InvestorPlace's Jim Woods.

Chipmaker Intel (INTC) did it again.

The tech bellwether handily beat consensus earnings forecasts for both its bottom line and the top line, reporting a third-quarter profit of 33 cents a share on revenue of $9.39 billion. Analysts who cover the stock were expecting a bottom line number of just 28 cents a share on revenue of $9.037 billion.

Bing: More on Intel

Of course, with a company like Intel, the forecast for the quarter ahead is of supreme significance -- not just for Intel but for many companies in PC and related sectors. And here we have what could be the real reason to smile, for not only Intel, but for many other companies that use Intel chips in their products.

Intel said that it sees strong consumer demand for PCs and better visibility going into the fourth quarter. The company also forecast fourth-quarter sales of $10.1 billion, give or take $400 million. It put its fourth-quarter gross margin at 62%, plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Shares of Intel were actually halted immediately before and immediately following the earnings announcement, but when the trade embargo was lifted, INTC shares gapped up nearly 6%. Obviously, traders liked what they heard.

I think what the Intel numbers tell us, along with the company’s statements in their conference call, is that consumers are really driving the PC market higher. What the Intel beat also confirms is our latest ChangeWave Alliance Research Network numbers on consumer PC demand.

According to our latest spending survey, spending on laptop computers was up nicely over the past 90 days (although demand for desktop computers remained unchanged from the previous survey).

Companies such as Apple (AAPL), which uses Intel chips in its Mac computers, are benefitting from a big surge in laptop spending since the July survey. We’ve also seen Dell (DELL) laptops benefit from spending on the consumer side.

More importantly for Dell, we’ve seen increased spending plans for laptop and desktop computers on the corporate side in our recent Alliance corporate PC surveys (corporate spending purchases make up approximately 80% of Dell’s revenue).

What this all adds up to is more momentum for Intel going forward, and very likely a continuation of the party on Wall Street the shares have enjoyed over the past six months.

I still think there is room to run for Intel shares, particularly based on what the company said about the fourth quarter and what our Alliance data is telling us about consumer spending. I think Intel is a buy here, and I think we’ll continue seeing nice upside in the stock for the rest of 2009.

Note: At the time of this writing, Jim Woods did not own INTC.

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Earnings opaque beyond third quarter

Minyanville — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 14:49:00 GMT

This article is written by Minyanville's Josh Lipton

This week marks the start of the third-quarter-earnings season, as Alcoa (AA) reports earnings on October 7.

The Street is expecting corporate earnings to decline 24.8%, which would mark the first time the S&P 500 has recorded nine straight quarters of negative growth since Thomson Reuters began tracking the data in 1998.

However, that 24.8% drop is still slightly better than the 27.3% fall in the second quarter. In fact, analysts say earnings should show signs of improvement over for the short term, due to cost control, inventory restocking, and easy comparisons against a terrible 2008 -- particularly among the financials.

“Things get less bad this quarter, with smaller year-over-year losses than in the first quarter and second quarter,” S&P equity analyst Alec Young tells us.

Looking further ahead, for 2010, the crystal ball of professional forecasters becomes much cloudier and, frankly, your guess is as good as that of any bow-tied CFA working on Wall Street: Nobody really knows how this struggling economy will perform once it’s weaned off Uncle Sam’s massive federal subsidies.

Last Friday, as the lousy employment report emphasized in gruesome detail, this US economy continues to really suffer. The report was awful. As David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff notes, there can be no durable recovery without net job creation and organic wage growth, which were both lacking in the jobs survey.

So, can earnings recover even if employment remains this weak?

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research thinks they can. “US companies are scrambling to decouple from the US economy, and are finding more revenues and earnings overseas, especially among emerging economies,” the investment strategist writes in a client note.

“Furthermore, even a subpar recovery in domestic revenues could morph into significant earnings growth given all the cost cutting that has been going on during the recession,” Yardeni argues.

Charles Rotblut, senior market analyst for Zacks.com, agrees that, at least short term, earnings prospects look better for the market.

He’s telling his subscribers to hold less economically sensitive sectors like health care, which he likes, in part, because it’s cheap.

He plays the sector by holding the Health Care Select SPDR (XLV), an ETF with holdings including Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Medtronic (MDT), and Pfizer (PFE).

Rotblut balances out the portfolio by also committing capital to a more aggressive growth sector like technology. Analysts expect technology companies to show a combined 15% decline in third-quarter profits, but then climb 22% in the fourth quarter.

Rotblut holds the iShares S&P North American Technology-Semiconductors Index Fund (IGW), an ETF with holdings including Applied Materials (AMAT), Intel (INTC), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Texas Instruments (TXN). See, What Investors Need to Know About the Health-Care Sector.

He also likes the iShares S&P North American Technology Sector Index (IGM), an ETF with holdings such as Apple (AAPL), Cisco (CSCO), and Google (GOOG).
What about that fumbling financial sector? It’s expected to be the best performer this quarter, with earnings on average forecast to climb 59% from the year-ago period.

Rotblut counsels caution, urging stock pickers to target-shoot for opportunity.

“Part of that huge growth is because the first quarter and the second quarter were such disasters this year so that makes the numbers look good in comparison,” he says. “Now, there are companies that seem like they’re doing well, like Goldman Sachs (GS). On the flip side, companies like Citigroup (C) and Zions Bancorp (ZION) still have a lot of exposure to those areas hit hardest by the real estate market.” For more on Goldman, see Goldman Sachs Lightning Bolt Sparks Rally.

More broadly, as third-quarter earnings season kicks off, the Street wants to see some improvement now in lackluster corporate revenue, says Peter Boockvar, Miller Tabak’s equity strategist.

Last quarter, companies beat lowball estimates on cost-cutting and layoffs, but investors are going to want to see some top-line growth.

“Unlike the second quarter, where people rewarded better-than-expected EPS numbers and shrugged off revenue misses, there will be more of a focus on whether companies are driving revenue in a difficult economic environment,” Boockvar tells Minyanville.

He adds, “If the company is US-centric, whether it’s a retailer or a bank, then revenue growth will be tougher to come by. If you have exposure to overseas markets, particularly those that had pretty healthy GDP growth in the second quarter and the third quarter, such as Asia, then you will be much better off.”

For all of 2009, earnings are expected to fall 16.9% from 2008’s level. However, in 2010, analysts see profits rising 26.5%. Investors obviously agree with this peachy scenario, evidenced by an explosive seven-month rally that has taken the S&P 500 up nearly 60% from the March 9 lows.

According to Thomson Reuters, number crunchers predict profits generated by materials companies rising 85% in 2010; 73% for financials; 47% for energy companies; 37% for consumer discretionary companies.

Our response: Who cares?

This is pure guesswork. None of us knows how the US economy will perform next year. Right now, it’s impossible to even get a real, honest reading on this ailing economy of ours, seeing as how the patient is currently all hopped up on medicine from the federal government, like Cash for Clunkers and housing subsidies.

What we've witnessed is a degree of government intervention in the economy that would make a bearded Che Guevara blink. Now we all wait and see, fists clenched, as to what happens when the government stimulus wears off.

Given that uncertainty, the proper response by investors to 2010 projections is skepticism. Your forecast is just as good as that pencil-necked Wharton graduate now spinning spreadsheets at Deutsche Bank.

“In an uncertain environment like this, trying to glean 2010 estimates is foolhardy,” says Boockvar. “Nobody knows how the economy will turn out next year. A lot of people still think this will be a typical post-WW II recovery. But the downturn wasn’t typical and the upturn won’t be either. The historical analogies and benchmarks won’t necessarily apply this time.”

So where would Boockvar be putting money to work? Right now, he likes hard assets: commodities, commodity producers, countries that produce commodities, and anything ex-US, particularly Asia.

“My bottom line is you have to protect yourself from this depreciation of the dollar, which is the unofficial government policy,” he says.

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Sony bets on 3D TV

Douglas McIntyre — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 10:50:00 GMT

Sony (SNE), which has failed at most of its new initiatives over the last two years, needs something to work. Its PS3 has sold poorly. Prices for its digital cameras and television screens are under pressure from firms in Korea and China. Its new e-reader is competing in a market which includes Amazon’s (AMZN) Kindle which is a well-marketed leader, endorsed by Oprah.

Sony has decided that its next best chance to recover its financial performance and reputation for inventiveness is 3D TV. The question is whether anyone wants it.

The 3D products operates that way that older 3D cinema does, giving the viewer the illusion of watching content as if it were in the same room. The technology has several drawbacks, none of which can be easily overcome.

The first problem with 3D TV is that there is no single technology standard. This means that the industry could go through multi-year format wars the way the video cassette and HD TV and DVD markets did. These battles are costly and there is no guarantee that the technology Sony is backing, called “active shutter,” will prevail.

The other major problem is that 3D video cameras are expensive and it is not clear how many content providers will make the investment. Film studios may be willing to gamble that 3D will bring them more customers. TV production firms and TV news and sports operations may believe otherwise.

According to the FT, Sony “plans not only to sell 3D Bravia television sets, but to make Sony’s Vaio laptop computers, PlayStation 3 games consoles and Blu-ray disc players compatible with the technology.”

It is not so long ago that Microsoft (MSFT) and Intel (INTC) wanted to build the living room of the future filled with complex entertainment devices that would network game consoles with TVs and PCs so that the user could have one-stop access to all of them. The companies found out, after investing tens of millions of dollars, that people like their living rooms just they way they were. Sony may find out the hard way that “2D” video is just fine.

Top Stocks blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

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Will stock market double-dip?

Minyanville — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 12:39:00 GMT

Dow 9,000!

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 9,000 for the first time since January. It marks a rally of over 2,500 points, or almost 39%, in a span of a little more than four months, according to The New York Times.

The underlying belief behind Thursday’s nearly 200-point performance is that companies are reporting better-than-expected profits, with companies like Intel (INTC), 3M (MMM) and even Ford (F) beating expectations.

But just as the Dow reached that psychological level, earnings results from Microsoft (MSFT) and American Express (AXP) disappointed investors. Strategists are calling for a correction in the markets, with some economists warning that a failed economic recovery could even lead to a double-dip recession wiping out stock market gains.

From the Bull Pen: The prevailing sentiment is that the market is getting a little ahead of itself and “should” have a meaningful pullback. This makes the contrarian believe that if stocks are on the path of maximum frustration, then they are headed higher. Bulls can look to the retail ETF (RTH). Consider an entry near $80-79 with a sell stop 2% below.

From the Bear Cave: If you do believe stocks will correct, consider playing the downside in the Ultra Dow ETF (DDM). Limit your risk using buy stops near $33-34 or using put options where the risk is limited to the premium.

Quick Check Around the World

Asian trading closed with the Hang Seng 0.83%, India 0.97%, Shanghai 1.33%, Nikkei 1.55%, and Taiwan -0.11%.

Glancing toward Europe, we see the FTSE 0.51%, CAC 0.44%, DAX 0.38%,

As of 8:05 AM EST, S&P Futures are trading +2.00 to 970.75 and Nasdaq futures are -1.00 to 1583.25.

A Look at Commodities

Over in commodities, crude oil is trading -0.16 to 67.00 while gold is -1.900 at 952.90 this morning. Silver is -0.500 to 13.77 and copper +1.05 to 253.05.

The dollar index is -0.1800 to 78.7900.

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09:55 Michigan Sentiment Revised 64.6 cons.

Happy Friday! Good luck today!

Top Stocks blogging partner Todd Harrison is founder & CEO of Minyanville.com. This post was written by Minyanville Contributor Terry Woo.

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Intel forges back into phones

Minyanville — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 14:50:00 GMT

Intel Deal with Nokia

Intel Corp (INTC) is making another big push into the mobile phone industry. According to Bloomberg, the world’s largest chipmaker will host a conference call today announcing its plans to provide processors to Nokia (NOK) for its production of mobile devices. Details are still unavailable, but some analysts are still excited over the news because Nokia is the world’s largest maker of mobile phones.

Just last February, Intel said it landed a contract with LG Electronics, the third largest phone-maker in the world. CEO Paul Otellini scrapped his predecessor’s $5 billion investment into the field in 2006 after he felt the company was late to the market. Now, he’s attempting to make the push back into phones to lessen Intel’s dependence on computers, which account for approximately 90% of sales.

From the Bull Pen: For those that like Intel, the big support is at $15 which also coincides with its 200 DMA. A sell stop can be set below that level.

From the Bear Cave: Increased competition is making it very tough for Nokia. And the headwinds could get stronger should the economy turn lower. Those currently playing the downside can set a short term buy stop above yesterday’s high ($14.50).

Quick Check Around the World

Asian trading closed with the Hang Seng -2.89%, India -0.02%, Shanghai -0.12%, Nikkei -2.82%, and Taiwan -2.27%.

Glancing towards Europe, we see the FTSE 0.40%, CAC 0.01%, DAX 0.58%

As of 8:10 AM EST, S&P Futures are trading +4.3 to 892.90 and Nasdaq futures are +4 to 1432.00.

A Look at Commodities

Over in commodities, crude oil is trading +0.09 to 67.59 while gold is +3.40 at 924.40 this morning. Silver is +0.100 to 13.80 and copper +5.05 to 218.25.

The dollar index is -0.395 to 80.7500.

On the Radar

Economics

10:15 Existing Home Sales 4.83m cons

Click here to see the full trading radar.

Good luck today!

Top Stocks blogging partner Todd Harrison is founder & CEO of Minyanville.com. This post was written by Minyanville Contributor Terry Woo.

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Minyanville — Thu, 28 May 2009 16:44:00 GMT

In this morning’s New York Times, I read with great interest about the success of the local teams’ young, unheralded backup catchers. Their achievements led columnist George Vecsey to ask “why general managers have traditionally spent millions and millions on mediocre players past their prime rather than for eager and cheaper young players.”

What does this have to do with Minyans?

A couple of things.

First, it gets to the heart of the thesis of my upcoming book, The Undoing of Cowardice. I argue that while it makes good, cheap theater to haul bank CEOs in front of Congress, it has surprisingly little to do with our real problems. Our markets are sick, I contend, because we've encouraged investment managers to behave like one another. We've encouraged supposedly independent thinkers to act like index funds. And index funds only work properly when independent thinkers are setting the prices.

In baseball’s case, general managers would often rather spend the millions for so-called “known quantities” than be second-guessed by giving a job to an unproven rookie.

So “known quantities” -- better described in many cases as has-beens that never were -- get paid millions for lousy performance because their names are familiar.

Similarly, we encourage investment managers to buy “blue-chip” stocks because, as I always say, “You can never get fired for owning Intel (INTC).” Just think of all those years you could never get fired for owning General Motors (GM) or General Electric (GE).

Second, think about this from the players’ perspective: As a major-leaguer with minor-league talent, you'll do everything within your power to stay in “the show.” You’ll be a good clubhouse presence, you’ll buy nice birthday gifts for the general manager’s kid, you’ll say all the right things in the interviews. You just won’t hit, run, field and throw very well. But you’re still making millions when lots of minor leaguers making tens of thousands are probably better players.

Which teams win? Teams like last year’s Tampa Bay Rays - young, talented, unknown and hungry. Which investors do best? The ones that invest to win.

Let’s start exposing the playing-not-to-lose view of the world for the sick, Madoff-enabling mindset it is.

Top Stocks blogging partner Todd Harrison is founder & CEO of Minyanville.com. This post was written by Minyanville Contributor Bill Feingold

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GM and Citigroup: Does the government get money back?

Douglas McIntyre — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 10:48:00 GMT

By the middle of the year, the federal government will own large, and in some cases, controlling interests, in two car companies and several major banks. There is a chance the the extent of rescue efforts and government ownership could move to auto parts suppliers and insurance companies.

If the Treasury can pick up stock in Cisco (CSCO) and Intel (INTC), it can control most of the important sectors of the economy. That raises the issue of how the federal government gets all of that taxpayer money back.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) have done poorly on their “stress tests”. Each bank may be encouraged to raise more capital.

As a number of analysts have pointed out, private equity has no interest in stakes in troubled banks, even at a steep discount to current market values. To help improve banks’ capital bases, the Administration will almost certainly have to take the money it has given and is about to give to banks, and convert it into common stock. That will crush current shareholders and it will create the problem of how taxpayers ever get paid back.

It is easy to say that because Citi and B of A are public companies that the government’s shares can be sold. That will be nearly impossible.

The minute the Fed signals that it is time for an orderly exit is the minute that other shareholders get panicky, driving the value of the firms down. In a vicious circle, the value of the government’s interests get depressed by the fact that it would like to get taxpayers their money back. Even if the value of banks rise temporarily. taking the profits off the table will be problematic.

The car industry is not terribly different. If the Treasury controls General Motors (GM), first it will have to decide how much control it wants to exercise and to what extent it wants to influence company policy. Beyond that, if the company does well, the yield from the government’s investment may be locked up, unless it can find another car company, almost certainly foreign, to take its stake. That brings the conversation around to whether the Congress is anxious for GM to be controlled by VW or Toyota (TM).

If the government ends up in de facto control of two of the largest industries in the country, it probably will not have done taxpayers any favors. Should the economy gets worse, the amount of the government’s ownership, and its exposure, will grow as it protects its investment and support of “strategic” industries with more capital. It is not far-fetched to believe that the Fed could end up having a 50% stake in Citigroup.

How does the taxpayer even get repaid? Probably through an auction process to sell government holdings in companies that it has rescued.

Suddenly, the government is in the private equity business. Private equity has always had the advantage of leverage. It would buy a company by putting up 10% of its own capital and borrowing 90% from a bank. But, the government has no bank. It can only lend money to itself.

Top Stocks blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

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3-D not just for drive-ins anymore

Minyanville — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 17:25:00 GMT

It started out with flimsy-framed glasses, one lens in blue, the other in red. And just like that, the Creature from the Black Lagoon looked like he was coming right off the screen.

3-D technology, which had its heyday in the 1950s, has intermittently reappeared, with varying degrees of success -- 1983’s "Jaws 3-D" arguably being the nadir. But one of 2009’s biggest weekend openings may have us poised for a 3-D renaissance.

In anticipation of the Dreamworks film "Monsters vs. Aliens," theaters around the country rushed to upgrade projectors to provide 3-D functionality, at a cost of roughly $100,000 per theater. Theaters expected the film’s box-office receipts would help recoup their upgrade costs, and the film didn’t disappoint, generating $59.3 million in box office over its opening weekend.

But the real box-office record of note was the movie's place as the largest digital 3-D opening in history. With more than 2,000 screens outfitted for 3-D, the 3-D theaters accounted for $32.6 million of the $59.3 million opening weekend. Despite the big weekend, the number of screens compatible with 3-D was below initial estimates from Dreamworks Animation (DWA) chief Jeffrey Katzenberg, who has been championing the new format.

A former executive at Disney (DIS) and a founding partner in Dreamworks with Steven Spielberg and David Geffen, Katzenberg has even done his own press junket touting "Monsters vs. Aliens" and its 3-D technology -- virtually unheard of for a studio executive.

With Dreamworks currently slated to release roughly two 3-D films a year, the studio has partnered with HP (HPQ) for its technology needs. HP outfitted Dreamworks with computers and conferencing equipment and has proven crucial in the massive work that went into creating "Monsters vs. Aliens."

Created using Intel’s (INTC) Intru 3-D animating technology, the entire film took up 100 TB of data (that’s more than 100,000 gigs of memory). While moviegoers are obliged to wear the requisite eyewear, Dreamworks is in discussion with sunglasses manufacturers so moviegoers can wear their own glasses to view 3-D films.

But it’s not just conventional animated films going back to 3-D. Director James Cameron, who has constantly integrated cutting-edge technology in his films, will be releasing his first theatrical feature film since 1997’s "Titanic." The film, "Avatar," will be screened in 3-D.

Slated for a mid-2009 release, "Avatar" inspired director Ridley Scott to make his upcoming film, entitled "Forever War," in 3-D. Countless films are also being re-released in 3-D, most notably Tim Burton’s "The Nightmare Before Christmas," and rumors abound that director Peter Jackson may start shooting this year for a 3-D film version of Tolkien’s "The Hobbit." And related industries are catching on.

The surge in new 3-D technology has Panasonic, Sony (SNE), and Samsung all looking to roll out their own lines of 3-D Blu-ray players and 3-D televisions by 2010.

No word on a "Jaws 3-D" re-release, though. Which is probably a good thing.

Top Stocks blogging partner Todd Harrison is founder & CEO of Minyanville.com. This post was written by Minyanville Contributor Tal Pinchevsky.

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US economy could lose 8 million jobs this year

Douglas McIntyre — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 12:13:00 GMT

Using the U.S. government’s count, about 2.4 million people lost their jobs in America last year. That does not include people who have been jobless for an extended period and are no longer looking for jobs. In January, another 598,000 people were put onto the streets by their employers, moving the unemployment rate up to 7.6%.

According to MarketWatch, the average forecaster thinks the economy shed 640,000 jobs last month. Some of the estimates are well over 700,000. The impression that the employment situation is getting worse was confirmed by Ben Bernanke’s comments testimony to the Senate yesterday.

Analysts may admit to a frightening February unemployment rate, but most either believe that the economy is going to get better or don’t want to say in public what they think. While it is comforting to claim that the February numbers will be a bottom for employment erosion, that may not be the case. The joblessness rate could thunder higher between now and year-end.

During the 1980 to 1982 recession, unemployment went from 7.9% in October 1981 to 10.1% the following September. Over the two months after that it hit 10.8%. The notion that 10% unemployment will not arrive until next year, if it comes at all, is bogus.

The proposition that the stimulus package and new budget will create jobs may be true. It is also true that not enough money will reach companies which actually have payrolls to have much impact on their hiring this year. No one knows whether the programs will work. Since they are untested, particularly in an economy this large that is destroying itself this fast, trying to assess their chances of success is as tough as making a winning wager on which dog team will win the Iditarod.

The most important business dynamic that works against job creation in an economy dropping this quickly is the fact that every worker is a consumer. Layoffs are a vicious cycle that undermine the major pillar of any expansion. Consumer confidence drives the process that is the largest single component of GDP. In this recession, the trouble is compounded by an unprecedented lack of access to credit because of housing prices and the near-failure of the banking system.

The other root cause that bedevils any attempt to improve the job situation is that private enterprise is suffering from an unusually rapid loss of earnings. Corporate bankruptcies are beginning to rise sharply and even companies which have been considered rock solid such as General Electric (GE) and Intel (INTC) admit that their core businesses are being hurt badly and will not guess about when the situation will improve. Large companies have gotten into the habit of saying that they cannot forecast earnings because they have “limited visibility.” In most cases that means they cannot predict their sales beyond the current quarter.

The awful result of doing the math about job loss is that the monthly average increase in unemployment this year could be 650,000 to 700,000 jobs. Between the end of last year and next New Year’s eight million people could be put out of work. The fact that the number is staggering does not make it improbable.

The government’s plan to create jobs is not set up to cope with a situation where jobs are lost at the rate of two million a quarter. Even advocates of tax cuts would have to admit that the money that it would add to business and consumer wallets would not make a great deal of difference in the next several months. That may be academic. The Administration is proposing a modest cut for most people, but it is just that—a modest cut. Businesses which will be taxed at a higher rate will have to decide whether that drain effects how many people they will have on their payrolls or not.

In the final analysis, the market may have to go through the tragedy of a sell-correction which combines agony and duration. What may happen is that the economy will run through a cycle in which unemployment increases until labor costs fall to a nearly unimaginable level. Businesses will begin to hire again because they will have access to skilled workers at a fraction of what those people would have cost them a year ago. If that is the solution to the labor problem, the end of the recession is a long march from here.

Top Stocks blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

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Don't expect a rebound in chip sector soon

Kim Peterson — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 19:00:00 GMT

A rather gloomy report is out about the prospects for semiconductor stocks. Chip sales won't return to last year's levels until 2013, according to a Gartner report covered by MarketWatch.

The biggest factor keeping those levels depressed is a global drop in demand as electronics sales have sputtered. Semiconductor sales are expected to fall nearly 25% this year, to about $195 billion, Gartner said. Back in December, the firm was expecting only a 16% drop.

The industry has been through this before. After the 2001 recession, chip sales fell by a third and revenue didn't return to previous levels for four years. This time around, the rebound could be similar, experts say.

How is this playing out with stocks? Investors seem to feel a little better about the industry than Gartner does. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is just starting to climb back this week after being in a downward spiral for the past month, and today is up nearly 2% to $202.75.

Intel (INTC) is showing some signs of life as well, after a pretty steep drop over the last two weeks. The company just filed a statement with regulators to sell stock and debt to raise money, and a Barclays analyst thinks the company is looking more resilient these days.

Computer makers might start to restock their chip inventory in the second quarter, said the analyst, according to Barron's. Intel also benefits from a strong competitive position, a 4.5% dividend and robust cash generation.

Micron Technology (MU) shares are also turning up, even after the chipmaker said it may cut up to 2,000 more jobs. The company cut 3,000 of its 19,000 total positions last year.